Canalys: Apple shipped 11.9M iPhone 8 and 8 Plus units in Q3 2017, down from 14M iPhone 7 and 7 Plus units in Q3 2016
Todd Haselton / CNBC :
Context & Ripple Effects
The weak Q3 number is the confirmation of what earlier sell-through data already suggested: iPhone 8 and 8 Plus took just 16% of US iPhone sales in the quarter, against 43% for the 7 generation a year earlier. The obvious read is deferral — buyers holding out for the iPhone X rather than skipping an upgrade.
Two other Canalys datapoints frame it: Apple's China business had just snapped six quarters of decline with 40% YoY growth to 11M units in Q3, so the softness was specific to the new-model launch, not the installed base. And the follow-on quarter answered the question — Apple shipped 29M iPhone Xs in Q4, making it the best-shipping model of the holiday season.
First-order effects
- Apple's Q3 shipment mix skews heavily to older models, pushing revenue per unit down until the iPhone X ramps in Q4 — the launch quarter no longer carries the flagship.
Second-order effects
- Carriers and retail channels that stocked up on iPhone 8 inventory ahead of launch carry excess mid-tier stock into the holiday quarter, while Apple's supply chain re-ramps around the X's more constrained production.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — a modest S-model quarter followed by a record flagship quarter, then a record 16M-unit Q1 2018 in a US market that shrank 11% — Apple's upgrade cycle consolidates around one premium device per year, decoupling its volumes from overall market growth.
The trend: Smartphone demand is migrating from incremental fall refreshes to a single premium flagship, letting Apple grow shipments in a shrinking market by concentrating upgrades on one device.