Counterpoint Research: in Q1 2018, US smartphone sales dropped 11% YoY to 38.7M, yet Apple shipped a record 16M iPhones, an increase of 16% YoY
Six out of the top ten smartphone model SKUs were from Apple with iPhone 8 & X 64 GB versions the most popular.
Context & Ripple Effects
The Q1 2018 numbers resolve a question raised six months earlier, when iPhone 8 and 8 Plus managed only 16% of US iPhone sales and looked like a flop. The iPhone X answered: per Strategy Analytics it became the world's best-selling smartphone at 16M units, and Counterpoint's US data shows Apple growing 16% YoY inside a market that shrank 11%.
The same quarter also marks an early data point in a longer arc the corpus keeps confirming: North America hit a five-year shipment low in Q1 2019 with Apple holding ~40% share, and by Q1 2024 the US was in its sixth consecutive quarterly decline with Apple flat at 52% — a shrinking market that consistently consolidates around one vendor.
First-order effects
- Apple took a record 16M US shipments and six of the top ten model SKUs (iPhone 8 and X 64GB leading) while every non-Apple vendor absorbed the full force of an 11% market contraction.
- The demand mix shifted decisively to the premium tier: the two best-selling SKUs were $699+ devices, meaning the buyers still upgrading were buying up, not across.
Second-order effects
- Samsung and Android OEMs face a squeeze from both ends — losing high-margin flagship buyers to iPhone X while the shrinking 38.7M-unit pool leaves less low-end volume to compensate with.
- Carriers and retailers see upgrade economics invert: fewer total transactions but concentrated in expensive devices, pushing financing and trade-in programs toward the premium segment.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds — and the 2019 and 2024 quarters suggest it does — the US market settles into a replacement cycle where Apple's share ratchets up each downturn, structurally advantaging one vendor as unit volumes permanently decline.
The trend: The US smartphone market is contracting into a replacement-driven cycle in which Apple converts each successive downturn into a larger share of a smaller pie.