KGI's Ming-Chi Kuo predicts all 2018 iPhones will abandon Touch ID in favor of Face ID
KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo is out tonight with a new investor note. Kuo explains that, despite initially believing Apple might readopt fingerprint technology, it's now likely that all 2018 iPhone models …
Context & Ripple Effects
KGI's Ming-Chi Kuo is reversing his own call here: after earlier weighing whether Apple might readopt fingerprint hardware, his investor note now has all three 2018 iPhone models going Face ID-only. The prediction extends a split he has tracked before — his Touch ID-equipped MacBook Pro note showed Apple keeping fingerprints on Macs even as iOS moved to face recognition.
First-order effects
- Fingerprint sensor suppliers lose their highest-volume socket: with no 2018 iPhone carrying Touch ID, TrueDepth camera components become the biometric bill-of-materials across the entire iPhone line, not just the premium tier.
- Apple's entry-level iPhone buyers get Face ID by default, making the notch-and-face-unlock design the baseline rather than an upsell differentiator.
Second-order effects
- Android OEMs' fingerprint module vendors face volume and pricing pressure as the largest single smartphone buyer exits capacitive touch sensing entirely.
- Kuo's related coverage shows Apple keeping Touch ID alive on Macs — his 2018 iPad Pro and MacBook note still lists fingerprint hardware there — so component makers pivot from losing the iPhone socket to competing for the smaller Mac/iPad one.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, Apple's roadmap points toward biometrics migrating under the display itself — Kuo's later under-display Face ID prediction for 2023 iPhones sketches the endpoint where the sensor disappears into the screen and the hardware notch goes with it.
- The industry structure this implies is a two-track biometric standard: face recognition as the phone default, fingerprints retained where keyboards and pencils make them practical — a split competitors would have to design around.
The trend: Apple is consolidating mobile authentication around Face ID while confining Touch ID to Macs and iPads, with sensor placement steadily migrating toward under-display integration.