KGI: Apple to release MacBook Pros with Touch ID and an OLED touch bar replacing function keys above keyboard in Q4, plus a 13-inch MacBook model
According to a new note from reliable Apple analyst Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities and corroborated by our sources, Apple plans to introduce …
Context & Ripple Effects
Ming-Chi Kuo at KGI Securities is out with his read on the next MacBook Pro generation: Touch ID, and an OLED strip replacing the row of function keys above the keyboard, shipping in Q4 alongside a new 13-inch MacBook model. The call lands two months before Bloomberg reported the same machine taking shape — a thinner chassis built around USB Type-C and that touchscreen strip — so the supply chain and the press are converging on one design.
What makes this worth tracking is how the prediction ages in Kuo's own later notes. By early 2021 he was forecasting a redesign that dropped the Touch Bar entirely in favor of MagSafe and more built-in ports (the 14- and 16-inch MacBook Pro refresh), and by late 2025 he had Apple moving to a full touchscreen OLED MacBook Pro entering mass production by late 2026. Today's OLED-strip announcement is the opening move of that decade-long input experiment.
First-order effects
- Buyers of the Q4 machines get a keyboard whose top row is now a context-sensitive display, and per Bloomberg's sourcing, a thinner body whose ports consolidate onto USB Type-C — meaning existing cables, docks, and adapters stop working without converters.
- Apple's pro-laptop line splits into three tiers for the first time in this cycle: the new 13-inch MacBook below, and Touch ID-equipped MacBook Pros above it.
Second-order effects
- App developers shipping Mac software gain a second UI surface to design for — every function-key shortcut is now something an app renders dynamically — while accessory makers pivot from keycap replacements to screen-skin and dock products for the USB-C-only chassis.
- Users who depend on physical function keys and legacy connectors face an all-or-nothing upgrade decision, which slows refresh rates among exactly the professional buyers the 'Pro' branding targets — pressure that foreshadows the port-restoring correction Kuo later predicted for 2021.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern in Kuo's notes holds — strip added in 2016, stripped out in 2021, full touchscreen OLED by 2026 — Apple's Mac input design is structurally cyclical rather than linear, with each experiment priced into hardware buyers can't easily undo.
- The Touch Bar's rise and fall becomes the reference case for how Apple tests novel input on its highest-margin laptops: introduce on Pro hardware first, retreat if pro workflows reject it, then re-attempt the underlying idea (touch) once the display technology matures enough to cover the whole panel.
The trend: Apple's laptop input surface keeps oscillating between experimental controls and conventional keyboards, with Kuo's supply-chain notes marking each swing from the OLED strip to its removal to a full touchscreen.