KGI: 3rd-generation Apple Watch will ship this year in LTE and non-LTE models, won't have “obvious change” to form factor, will keep 38mm and 42mm sizes
Reliable analyst Ming-Chi Kuo of KGI Securities has released a new forecast on the next generation Apple Watch.
Context & Ripple Effects
A year after KGI called the second-generation Watch's GPS addition and unchanged form factor, Ming-Chi Kuo's new note extends the same template: same 38mm and 42mm cases, no obvious design change, but a new LTE/non-LTE product split.
The forecast matters because cellular independence was the open question heading into Apple's fall event, and KGI's pre-launch notes have become the market's default preview of what Apple will actually ship.
First-order effects
- Buyers face a two-tier lineup for the first time: a standard model and an LTE model, with the cellular variant implying a higher price and its own connectivity.
- Existing bands and accessories stay compatible because the 38mm and 42mm case sizes are retained, so no forced re-buy for current owners.
Second-order effects
- An LTE Apple Watch gives carriers a new connected-device category to sell against, forcing decisions on how to package standalone watch connectivity rather than treating the watch as a phone tether.
- Rival wearables without cellular radios face a spec gap at the top of the market once Apple's cellular model ships, as confirmed by the Series 3 launching with built-in LTE at $399+.
Third-order effects
- If cellular lands inside the same casing, the Watch takes a concrete step toward running independently of the iPhone — the groundwork for the larger overhaul later reported for the 10th-anniversary 'Watch X' redesign.
- KGI's repeated pre-launch calls make its notes a market-moving input each fall, effectively front-running Apple's own announcements and shaping expectations before a word is official.
The trend: Apple Watch generations alternate between internal upgrades on a stable chassis and reserved milestone redesigns, with cellular independence as the stepwise path off the iPhone.