Global smartphone shipments in 2026 are set to shrink 2.1% due to rising memory costs, led by Chinese OEMs; DRAM prices could further raise costs by 10% to 15%
- Global smartphone shipments in 2026 are expected to shrink 2.1% due to rising memory costs.
Context & Ripple Effects
The forecast identifies memory pricing as a smartphone demand constraint rather than a component-level issue, with Chinese OEMs most exposed. Later coverage sharpened that pressure: first-quarter global shipments fell 4.1% amid memory constraints, even as Samsung and Apple posted growth.
The burden is concentrated at the value end of the market. Omdia subsequently projected a drop of more than 22% in sub-$400 phone shipments, while reporting that memory had become an unusually large share of bill-of-materials costs.
First-order effects
- Chinese smartphone OEMs face a direct cost increase and a weaker 2026 shipment outlook as higher DRAM prices raise the cost of memory by a further 10% to 15%.
- Brands must absorb the increase, raise handset prices, or alter device configurations; each choice pressures either margins, demand, or product specifications.
Second-order effects
- The greatest volume pressure should fall on lower-priced phones, where memory consumes a larger share of the bill of materials and customers have less room to absorb price increases.
- OEMs with greater scale or pricing power may be relatively better positioned, consistent with Samsung and Apple growing shipments in the first quarter while the wider market contracted.
Third-order effects
- If DRAM availability remains constrained, memory sourcing and configuration choices could become a durable determinant of smartphone competitiveness, not merely a cyclical input-cost issue.
- The market may tilt further toward vendors able to secure supply or sustain higher average selling prices, while entry-level replacement cycles become more vulnerable to component-price swings.
The trend: Smartphones are entering a memory-led cost cycle in which constrained semiconductor supply increasingly shapes device pricing, specifications, and volume growth.