Q&A with Satya Nadella on business models for AGI, Copilot, Microsoft AI, the hyperscale business, the OpenAI partnership, capex, sovereign AI efforts, and more
As part of this interview, Satya Nadella gave Dylan Patel (founder of SemiAnalysis) and me an exclusive first-look at their brand-new Fairwater 2 datacenter.
Dwarkesh Podcast Dwarkesh Patel
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Discussion
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@steadycompound
Thomas Chua
on x
Dwarkesh and Dylan Patel got Satya to actually answer the hard questions about Microsoft's AI strategy. A few things that stood out: 1. On losing coding assistant market share from ~100% to 25% in one year: “I love this chart for so many reasons. One is we're still on the top. [i…
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@dwarkesh_sp
Dwarkesh Patel
on x
.@satyanadella gave me and @dylan522p an exclusive tour of Fairwater 2, the most powerful AI datacenter in the world. We then chatted through Satya's vision for Microsoft in a world with AGI. 0:00:00 - Fairwater 2 0:04:15 - Business models for AGI 0:13:42 - Copilot 0:20:56 - [vid…
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@dwarkesh_sp
Dwarkesh Patel
on x
“I can make the argument that if you're a model company, you may have a winner's curse. You may have done all the hard work, done unbelievable innovation, except it's one copy away from that being commoditized.” @satyanadella [video]
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@rihardjarc
Rihard Jarc
on x
$MSFT's Satya's golden reaction on whether he believes the revenue projections of AI labs. “What do you expect an independent lab that is trying to raise money to do? They have to put some numbers out there such that they can actually go raise money so that they can pay their [vi…
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@alexeheath
Alex Heath
on x
OpenAI's largest shareholder
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@edzitron
Ed Zitron
on x
...Satya what're you saying here exactly
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@modestproposal1
@modestproposal1
on x
This might be the best interview of Nadella. Very tough and direct questions but totally fair and warranted. Nadella's answers shine light not just on Microsoft's business model evolution due to AI, but how he thinks SAAS, hyperscalers, neoclouds, etc will be impacted. A+
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@firstadopter
Tae Kim
on x
I DIED LAUGHING at this ending. Satya Nadella on AI demand and why they are leasing from neoclouds: “It's fine for us because now when you have line of sight to demand.” Satya on how great Nvidia is (lolol): “the thing that is the biggest competitor for any new accelerator is
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@clementdelangue
Clem
on x
Great interview but am I the only one who feels like @dwarkesh_sp and @dylan522p sound brainwashed by big model labs? Personally loved @satyanadella's points about a lot of value being in the scaffolding, multi-model approaches, and open-source as the basis for the long-tail of
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@mgsiegler.com
M.G. Siegler
on bluesky
Clear that what I wrote about the freak out over Microsoft's data center “pullback” last February seems correct. It wasn't a pullback, it was a pause to hand-off OpenAI and reassess their own needs... Foot is back on the gas now. spyglass.org/ai-data-cent... [embedded post]
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@mustafasuleyman
Mustafa Suleyman
on x
Let's just say the new @MicrosoftAI Superintelligence Team is pretty pumped... Even more GPUs go brrrr
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@the_ai_investor
@the_ai_investor
on x
Microsoft Fairwater DC “Fleet: Each Fairwater DC can integrate hundreds of thousands of the latest NVIDIA GPUs into a single coherent cluster. This provides flexible infra that can support the full spectrum of workloads, and ensure no GPU is left unnecessarily idle. And that's
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@kenmogi
Ken Mogi
on x
Embodied intelligence.
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@satyanadella
Satya Nadella
on x
Today we announced our new Fairwater datacenter in Atlanta, connected with our first Fairwater site in Wisconsin and our broader Azure footprint to create the world's first AI superfactory. Fairwater exemplifies our vision for a fungible fleet: infra that can serve any workload, …
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@testingcatalog
@testingcatalog
on x
Microsoft announces its own AI Superfactory 🤖 “And that's on top of the more than 100,000 GB300s coming online this quarter alone for inference across the rest of our fleet.” [image]
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@ninadschick
Nina Schick
on x
I'm in Atlanta today ! And, seems like compute is still hot - whether for model training (ergo AI scaling) or for inference / data generation. All roads lead to compute.
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@shiraovide
Shira Ovide
on bluesky
Hi, I keep having to say that this is not a “factory” www.wsj.com/tech/ai/insi...
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r/Visakhapatnam
r
on reddit
Water usage for a datacenter
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@firstadopter
Tae Kim
on x
Microsoft is going to double their data center footprint over the next two years. They are seeing the demand signals “Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella said the company's total AI capacity would grow by over 80% this year with its data center footprint doubling over the next two
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@mattmday
Matt Day
on bluesky
Microsoft's in-house chips effort could get some help from OpenAI: www.bloomberg.com/news/article...
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@edzitron.com
Ed Zitron
on bluesky
Exclusive: Based on documents viewed by this newsletter, OpenAI spent over $12.4 billion on inference from 2024 to September 2025. As part of its Microsoft revenue share, it sent $493.8m in 2024/$865.8m Jan-Sep 2025, implying lower revenues than previously reported. — www.wher…
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@edzitron.com
Ed Zitron
on bluesky
While I do not have the full extent of its revenues, it is obvious that OpenAI's costs are dramatically higher - by several billion dollars - than previously reported. Similarly, the implied revenues are much lower than reported. — I am deeply concerned. — www.wheresyoured.a…
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r/technology
r
on reddit
How high are OpenAI's compute costs? Possibly a lot higher than we thought
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r/BetterOffline
r
on reddit
Newsletter: Exclusive: Here's How Much OpenAI Spends On Inference and Its Revenue Share With Microsoft
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@andrewlekashman
Andrew Lekashman
on x
Today @SemiAnalysis_ had the opportunity to do an interview with Satya Nadella to discuss Microsoft's recent activity and plans for the future with AI and AGI. https://www.youtube.com/... This interview was conducted by Dylan Patel and Dwarkesh Patel, and was a rare opportunity t…
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@andrewlekashman
Andrew Lekashman
on x
If you want to read the analyst team's read on Microsoft's future plans, we also published an extensive article on the topic: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ...
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@jordannanos
Jordan Nanos
on x
Incredible interview. Some parts in here that jumped out to me: 1:05:58 - Microsoft has access to OpenAI's chip program (covered by the IP deal they have in place) 1:00:40 - Satya says we are “rightfully pointing out the pause” that happened last year on their self-build
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@firstadopter
Tae Kim
on x
“Dr. Burry's claim is predicated on an assumption that the NVIDIA product cycle is now 2-3 years, which is far lower than the useful life of the assets. We believe this is a fatal flaw in the argument” - @SemiAnalysis_ https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ... [image]
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@dylan522p
Dylan Patel
on x
It was absolutely amazing and surreal to get to grill Satya on his AI strategy. He has some really good responses, but also some areas where we disagree. See the interview below and the report we wrote up and posted today! https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ...
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@jordannanos
Jordan Nanos
on x
We have a companion article deconstructing The Pause, Copilot growth/competition, server depreciation schedules, and the go-forward plan with Maia + OpenAI Chip IP + others https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/ ...