The Trump administration proposes an H-1B visa process giving more weight to applications from employers who pay higher wages if visa demand exceeds the 85K cap
it allows for even more low-wage, low skill workers to come in, while leaving the “body shop” H1B mills intact... @xxshaurizardxx : what in the world are we doing here. why are we not respecting the free market. we already know how to perfectly locally determine the value of labor its called A Price System and we're undermining because the DoL can do better DoL more like EoL this is asinine methodology Santi Ruiz / @rsanti97 : This rule *increases* the number of visas that the scammy Indian outsourcing companies get. Who asked for this? Richard Hanania / @richardhanania : Who could've imagined that the administration's policy implementation would be even stupider than the announcement? Roon / @tszzl : this is almost too stupid to believe nature invented this great distributed computer called the “price system” to locally calculate scarcity with unimaginable accuracy and precision and immigration services / DOL thinks they can central plan better than this Jeremy Neufeld / @jeremylneufeld : The new Trump H-1B rule just dropped! It prioritizes DOL “Wage Levels,” not real wages. DOL thinks an experienced acupuncturist making $40k is a higher “Wage Level” than an early-career AI scientist making $280k. That means more visas for outsourcers, fewer for real talent. [image]
Context & Ripple Effects
The proposal extends a long-running effort to reshape H-1B allocation rather than simply expand or contract the cap. Earlier DHS proposals emphasized U.S. advanced degrees, while the 2020 changes sought to raise required wages and narrow eligibility; this version makes DOL wage-level classification the key selection signal when filings are oversubscribed. Earlier DHS proposals favored U.S. advanced-degree holders and the 2020 wage-and-eligibility overhaul provide the immediate policy backdrop.
It also arrives amid scrutiny of intermediaries’ use of the program: a later investigation documented how middlemen could game lottery participation and farm out IT workers. That scrutiny of middlemen’s lottery tactics makes the choice of wage levels, rather than reported pay alone, consequential.
First-order effects
- If adopted, oversubscribed H-1B selection would no longer treat qualifying filings equally: an employer’s DOL wage-level classification would affect its odds of receiving a visa number.
- Employers and prospective workers would need to assess role classifications and offered pay earlier in the filing process, while firms whose filings cluster in lower wage levels would face less certain access to the cap.
Second-order effects
- The proposal gives employers an incentive to redesign job descriptions, pay bands, and filing portfolios around the wage-level framework, potentially shifting competition from lottery-entry volume toward classification strategy.
- Because the rule weights wage levels rather than actual wages, critics argue outsourcing firms could still benefit through how roles are classified; the practical distributional effect would depend on the final rule and enforcement.
Third-order effects
- If this approach persists, H-1B allocation would move from a random-cap mechanism toward an administratively ranked labor-market policy, increasing the importance of DOL definitions and compliance decisions.
- The recurring focus on wage thresholds, degree preferences, and intermediary behavior suggests that future H-1B debates will center less on the cap alone and more on which employer models the selection system rewards.
The trend: H-1B policy is trending toward replacing lottery-based access with selection criteria intended to steer scarce visas toward preferred job and employer profiles.