As Amazon Prime Day begins, some merchants say they can't afford to offer discounts due to Trump's tariffs; Adobe expects $23.8B in sales across the four days
Amazon.com Inc.'s Prime Day is slamming into President Donald Trump's trade war, with ever-shifting tariffs prompting some brands …
Context & Ripple Effects
Prime Day has become a major retail demand event: Adobe put US spending during the 2024 two-day sale at $14.2 billion. This year's four-day sales forecast raises the stakes for merchants deciding whether promotional volume can still justify thinner margins.
The tariff pressure arrives after reports that Amazon was seeking deeper supplier discounts and tougher terms to protect its own margins. That makes merchant participation economics, rather than shopper demand alone, central to the event.
First-order effects
- Merchants facing tariff-driven cost pressure may reduce discounts or opt out of promotions they cannot profitably fund during Prime Day.
- Amazon enters a projected $23.8 billion four-day sales window with less certainty that third-party sellers can provide the breadth of deals shoppers expect.
Second-order effects
- Pressure to preserve deal depth can shift further toward suppliers, extending the margin negotiation already reported between Amazon and its vendors.
- Brands that maintain discounts may absorb more of the cost, while those that do not could lose promotional visibility and sales during a high-traffic period.
Third-order effects
- If tariff volatility persists, large marketplace sales events may become less defined by blanket discounts and more by which sellers can finance promotions without damaging margins.
- The episode points to a broader imbalance in marketplace retail: platforms can sustain traffic events, but the cost of participating can increasingly sit with third-party merchants and suppliers.
The trend: Trade-policy-driven cost volatility is reshaping how marketplaces, suppliers, and merchants share the cost of major online retail promotions.