US credit and debit card data: Shein's US sales rose 29% YoY in March and 38% YoY in April's first 11 days, while Temu rose 46% and 60%, ahead of US tariffs
Context & Ripple Effects
The sales acceleration follows a volatile start to 2025: card data had already shown a post-trade-policy sales decline for both platforms, while TikTok Shop moved ahead of Shein and Temu in US sales in January. That makes the March and early-April rebound a meaningful measure of how quickly demand can shift around policy expectations.
The data captures pre-tariff purchasing behavior rather than a settled demand trend. Later related coverage points to a sharp reversal after the policy change, underscoring the importance of timing in interpreting the surge.
First-order effects
- Shein and Temu received a near-term US demand lift as shoppers brought purchases forward before tariffs, with Temu posting the faster reported year-over-year growth.
- The sales spike gave both platforms a stronger pre-policy revenue window, even as their US exposure became more dependent on trade-policy timing.
Second-order effects
- The pull-forward likely compresses some later demand: subsequent card data recorded a week-over-week sales drop for both platforms after the pre-tariff rush.
- TikTok Shop and other commerce platforms compete for the same price-sensitive shoppers, so volatility in Shein and Temu traffic can create openings for rivals rather than establish a durable share shift.
Third-order effects
- If trade-policy changes continue to reshape purchase timing and platform usage, cross-border marketplaces will need business models less reliant on frictionless low-cost imports into the US.
- The later reported declines in Temu and Shein audiences suggest that policy exposure—not marketing alone—may increasingly determine competitive position in US value e-commerce.
The trend: US value-commerce platforms are becoming more sensitive to trade-policy shocks, with consumer demand moving sharply before and after changes to cross-border import economics.