First-order effects

• Shein and Temu face an immediate US-sales slowdown, making customer demand more sensitive to trade-policy changes rather than app-driven promotions alone.
• Shein appears especially exposed to disruption in the low-value, cross-border order model; Temu’s reported decline also shows that its bulk-shipment adaptation does not insulate it from the initial demand shock.

Second-order effects

• TikTok Shop and other US retail channels gain an opening to compete for price-sensitive shoppers while Shein and Temu contend with weaker transaction momentum.
• The platforms are likely to face pressure to adjust fulfillment, assortment, or pricing in the US; later reporting of another decline in Shein and Temu sales suggests the impact was not confined to one five-day reading.

Third-order effects

• If trade restrictions and de minimis changes persist, cross-border discount marketplaces may need US-facing logistics models that reduce reliance on individual low-value shipments.
• The episode points to a more policy-dependent US e-commerce market, where distribution architecture can matter as much as marketplace growth tactics; the relative resilience of each platform remains uncertain.