A close look at the state of video gaming in 2025, including why gaming soared from 2011 to 2021 and then stalled, China's global rise, and mobile gaming growth
Please note, this deck is in Early Access and will release in PDF shortly. There are two versions below based on your preference …
MatthewBall.coMatthew Ball
Context & Ripple Effects
This assessment follows coverage of layoffs, weak revenue growth and falling venture investment that framed gaming as a sector confronting the limits of its earlier expansion cycle. It supplies a broader market lens for interpreting those pressures rather than treating them as isolated company problems.
Publishers, platform owners and investors must evaluate plans against a market that no longer supports the growth assumptions formed during 2011–2021.
China and mobile become more consequential inputs to global gaming strategy as the report identifies them as areas of rising importance amid broader stagnation.
Second-order effects
Companies most exposed to mature gaming segments face stronger pressure to find growth through mobile products, broader geographic reach, or more selective portfolio investment.
The increased weight of China in global gaming raises competitive pressure on international publishers and platforms to account for Chinese market participants in product and distribution decisions.
Third-order effects
If this pattern persists, gaming shifts from broad-based expansion to a more uneven mature market, with growth increasingly determined by platform mix and regional positioning.
The 2024 backdrop of layoffs and weaker venture funding suggests capital allocation could remain more selective, favoring businesses with credible exposure to the segments still expanding.
The trend: Gaming is entering a post-boom rebalancing in which mobile growth and China’s global influence matter more as legacy growth engines slow.
It's hard to imagine, but despite tens of millions more US smartphone owners, IDFA and TikTok (social video) have resulted in fewer quarterly mobile game downloads in the US than in 2018. [image]
How Mark Zuckerberg lost > $60 billion over 5 years - and how Apple and the rest of tech did the same: chasing a virtual/augmented reality market that has yet to arrive. Chart by @ballmatthew, words by me. https://www.businessinsider.com/ ... [image]
Every time @ballmatthew goes quiet for a little, he comes back with 200+ pages of deep analysis and invaluable data. If you're interested in the gaming industry, his presentation is a must. Lots of great stuff. https://www.matthewball.co/...
Another favorite slide - one on a point generally known, but stunning to see quantified. The same five franchises on PC (which are 6-22 years old) have averaged 30% of playtime for 4 years straight On console (7-31 years), the top five franchises are a a stunning 43%... for [imag…
[PRESENTATION] The State of Video Gaming in 2025 — 220 slides covering why gaming soared from 2011-21 then suddenly stalled (no, not COVID), where growth is and isn't, Black Hole Games, China's global rise, the brutal effects of TikTok + IDFA, Steam, more [URL in Next Post] [imag…
Ubisoft is teetering on the edge of bankruptcy because its strategy of making middling single-player titles, which was very successful ten years ago, is obsolete. You cannot make money by having a team of 300 people work on a game for four years that gets a metascore of 7.5.
Required reading for anyone who wants to really understand the state of the modern games industry. An insanely comprehensive analysis of how we got here and where we could be headed. Quite sobering really.