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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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A look at some long-term issues facing the gaming industry, including deep layoffs, weak revenue growth, and declining VC investments

To players and outside observers, 2023 looks like one of the 70-year-old gaming industry's greatest-ever years.  Chief among its achievements was its slate of new software releases.

MatthewBall.co Matthew Ball

Context & Ripple Effects

The story captures a disconnect in games: a strong 2023 release slate did not prevent an industry-wide retrenchment. Related coverage had already documented layoffs and studio closures alongside strong game sales, indicating that release-level success was not translating evenly into sustainable business growth.

The reported pullback in venture funding adds a financing constraint to the employment pressure. Later coverage of gaming's post-2021 growth stall places this as part of a broader normalization after an earlier expansion cycle.

First-order effects

  • Game workers and smaller studios face a tougher operating environment as deep layoffs coincide with weaker revenue growth and less available venture capital.
  • Publishers, developers, and investors must evaluate new projects against slower expected returns, even after a year with prominent releases.

Second-order effects

  • Reduced VC availability can shift bargaining power toward larger publishers and platform holders that can fund development internally, while independent studios face a narrower path from prototype to launch.
  • Competitors are likely to prioritize projects with clearer commercial potential, reinforcing the gap between well-funded franchises and riskier new concepts.

Third-order effects

  • If growth remains subdued, gaming may move from expansion-led investment toward a more selective, consolidation-prone market in which access to distribution and financing matters more.
  • The sector's challenge is increasingly one of converting hit releases into durable economics, rather than simply producing more high-profile games.

The trend: Gaming is entering a post-boom capital-discipline phase, where slower growth and tighter funding reshape which studios and projects can survive.

Discussion

  • @carnage4life Dare Obasanjo on x
    2023 was hailed as the greatest year in gaming given hits like Alan Wake 2, Spider-Man 2, Tears of the Kingdom & Baldur's Gate 3. Microsoft bought Activision for $70B. The Super Mario movie made $1B. Yet gaming revenue is down since COVID hence layoffs. https://www.matthewball.vc…
  • @frozenfire42 Cameron Armstrong on x
    tldr; gaming is mature and industry dynamics (regulation, cost structures) favor incumbents so not a lot of low end disruption that drives growth is happening
  • @alexherrity Alex Herrity on x
    @ballmatthew Great post, and despite working in gaming, I actually see evidence of your analysis most directly in my personal life with three sons... - My kids have asked for fewer mobile game downloads, and I think this is at least party due to the reduction in targeted game app…
  • @karstenw Karsten Weide on x
    Further to the take that the @Apple #VisionPro and other #VR devices will not find mass consumer adoption: the only consumer VR application so far is gaming. But even there, revenues are so small they don't even register - see chart 4 in below tweet.
  • @rianflo Florian Hoenig on x
    @ballmatthew @tipatat So this is basically saying that a (COVID-) spike is a spike and not a trend?
  • @ballmatthew Matthew Ball on x
    @KarstenW @Apple I mean, the Y-Axis is $225 *billion* and you can see it....