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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Sources: TSMC's Arizona plant is now producing Systems-in-Package for the Apple Watch, almost certainly the S9, in addition to the A16 processor for iPhones

I've finally landed on a name for this publication: Culpium.  Further publishing announcements at the end.

Culpium, Tim Culpan

Context & Ripple Effects

September coverage had already identified small but significant A16 production at Fab 21, making this report evidence that Arizona output is broadening beyond a single iPhone chip.

The reported addition of Apple Watch system-in-package work matters because it extends the same domestic TSMC site into another Apple product line, while the broader coverage still frames U.S. capacity as comparatively limited versus Taiwan.

First-order effects

  • TSMC’s Arizona plant reportedly gains a second Apple workload: system-in-package production for the Apple Watch, likely the S9, alongside A16 processors for iPhones.
  • Apple can source reported production for both iPhone and Watch silicon from the Arizona operation, rather than treating the site as an A16-only deployment.

Second-order effects

  • Running two Apple product categories at the site makes Arizona capacity allocation more consequential: incremental Apple demand for one program can compete with the other for qualified output.
  • The expanded product mix gives TSMC a more concrete basis for using its planned Arizona capacity expansion, while Apple’s U.S. supply-chain role becomes less tied to a single chip program.

Third-order effects

  • If Apple continues qualifying multiple chip types in Arizona, overseas fabs may evolve from politically symbolic capacity into a recurring, though still capacity-constrained, part of contracted device-chip supply.
  • The pattern reinforces a semiconductor supply model in which leading customers diversify manufacturing geography with their primary foundry, rather than relying on a true second foundry source.

The trend: Apple and TSMC are gradually broadening geographically diversified chip production from isolated programs into a wider portfolio of device components.

Discussion

  • @yasukereborn @yasukereborn on bluesky
    That Biden Chips Act really will turn out to be a good thing for the country.
  • @dannycrichton Danny Crichton on x
    One of our upcoming Riskgaming scenarios is on water usage in Arizona and specifically the balance between new economic growth (TSMC) and old economic models (ag). Excited to share in a few weeks
  • @tculpan Tim Culpan on x
    EXCLUSIVE Just published by Culpium Apple has a second chip at TSMC Arizona, and exclusive details of capacity & ramp at Fab 21. https://www.culpium.com/... [image]