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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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AI startup founders and VCs hope that a Trump administration will lead to lighter regulations and the return of real acquisitions, not “contorted” ones

Practitioners expect more acquisitions and less oversight in a Trump administration expected to repeal Biden's executive order.

Forbes

Context & Ripple Effects

This story sits alongside policy proposals from Trump allies targeting what they called unnecessary AI rules, giving startup founders and investors a concrete political basis for expecting a less prescriptive federal posture. Trump-aligned draft AI policies had already framed regulation as a potential constraint on the sector.

The significance is not merely deregulation: founders and VCs are tying the policy shift to whether AI companies can pursue straightforward exits. Later coverage shows that replacing broad rules with case-by-case intervention can still leave companies seeking clarity rather than simply facing less government.

First-order effects

  • AI startup founders and VCs may reassess fundraising, growth and exit plans around an expectation of lower federal AI oversight and a more receptive acquisition environment.
  • The Biden AI executive order becomes an immediate policy focal point: its anticipated repeal would remove a key source of oversight expectations for affected AI companies.

Second-order effects

  • Potential buyers and startup boards could give greater weight to conventional acquisition routes rather than transaction structures designed around a tougher regulatory climate.
  • A lighter-rule expectation may sharpen competition among AI investors for companies viewed as viable acquisition targets, while increasing the value of policy access and regulatory interpretation.

Third-order effects

  • The episode points to AI market structure being shaped by executive-branch policy choices as much as by general-purpose regulation; whether that produces durable predictability depends on the consistency of enforcement.
  • If broad AI rules give way to discretionary decisions, companies may face a trade-off between fewer formal requirements and more uncertainty about how individual transactions or firms will be treated, as executives later sought regulatory clarity.

The trend: AI startups and investors are increasingly treating federal AI policy as a determinant of exit pathways and market structure, not just a compliance cost.

Discussion

  • @almsnatalie Natalie Alms on x
    Trump has promised to ax Biden's AI executive order. What comes next is uncertain, but expect anti-bias provisions for how federal agencies use AI to be on the chopping block. https://www.nextgov.com/...
  • @kevinbankston Kevin Bankston on x
    They shouldn't be. Trump's previous AI EO repeatedly highlighted the importance of AI use by agencies complying with civil rights law, cited co-equally with the values of civil liberties, safety, security, and privacy. The next order should reaffirm that. https://trumpwhitehouse.…
  • @danprimack Dan Primack on x
    Dealmaking surge isn't a sure bet in Trump 2.0 https://www.axios.com/...
  • @alexrkonrad Alex Konrad on x
    @saranormous ... How influence plays out is “confusing” to some. Will the open-source community's faith in JD Vance pay off? Will Elon Musk's support of controversial safety bill SB 1047? Noted one investor: “It's so soon to know what was campaign rhetoric vs. policy.” https://ww…
  • @alexrkonrad Alex Konrad on x
    @saranormous ... AI leaders also expect the end of acqui-hires of Adept AI and Character AI founders, which @_RobToews called “weird contortions” due to antitrust roadblocks. “I think there will be a lot more acquisitions of AI startups,” agreed @may_habib. https://www.forbes.com…
  • @sarahnemerson Sarah Emerson on x
    We asked AI founders + VCs what they expect under Trump: -Loosened regulatory mandates that are “better for America” -Expansive export controls on chips -The return of full acquisitions of AI startups by tech giants With @alexrkonrad and @RashiShrivast18 https://www.forbes.com/..…
  • @alexrkonrad Alex Konrad on x
    Top of mind for many is a looming repeal of Biden's Executive Order on AI. @saranormous called it “putting the cart before the horse.” @manuaero called it “heavy-handed.” A leader of a big AI research lab told us it was waylaid by “doomsday folks.” https://www.forbes.com/... [ima…
  • @levie Aaron Levie on x
    This election it was clear there's unified demand for more manufacturing, energy, safety, childcare, business formation, innovation, lower drug prices, and less regulation. We have an opportunity to have a united country on a number of key topics, so let's make it happen.
  • @levie Aaron Levie on x
    With a major push to remove unnecessary red tape and over-regulation in key areas, we could really have a century of crazy building, innovation, and acceleration. More manufacturing, housing, AI, energy, transportation, space, medicine, and more. Excited for Elon's efforts here.
  • @alexrkonrad Alex Konrad on x
    AI startup leaders and VCs are optimistic that the incoming Trump administration will lead to lighter regulations and the return of real acquisitions, not “contorted” ones. I spoke to a bunch of them with @sarahNemerson and @RashiShrivast18 for @forbes: https://www.forbes.com/...
  • @theprestige.bsky.social @theprestige.bsky.social on bluesky
    TikTok can just give him money.  Pay him for salvation.
  • @wagatwe.com @wagatwe.com on bluesky
    ... the ban was his idea.  how would he be a savior from it?????
  • @ali_lev Alexandra S. Levine on x
    Trump's win throws the future of TikTok in America into even more uncertainty. Some TikTok staff and users see him as a possible savior from a ban; others are skeptical he'll deliver on rhetoric suggesting he'd reverse it. Here's how this could play out: https://www.bloomberg.com…
  • @jayhawkjeff.bsky.social @jayhawkjeff.bsky.social on bluesky
    Startups (the ones meant here) are, by design, experimental bags of hammers.  Under resourced chaos designed to use large sums of $$$ to try as many experiments as possible.  Almost all of them fail.  And the ones that succeed just make money.  Not necessarily make anyone's life …
  • @angelaina.bsky.social @angelaina.bsky.social on bluesky
    They're gonna move fast and break things.
  • @jarnon.bsky.social Jarno Niemelä on bluesky
    Startup ethos?  —  Ehh, most recent startup that became unicorns are based on some kind of parasitic model.  —  How would that work in government?
  • @grosdoriane @grosdoriane on x
    You know what? Let's do it. I like our odds. [image]
  • @silvermanjacob Jacob Silverman on x
    their “startup ethos” is self-enrichment and techno-fascism