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Polymarket users have bet ~$2B on predicting the next US president; Polymarket has excluded US users since 2022 as part of a settlement with federal regulators

Kalshi founder Matthew Gault / Gizmodo : $30 Million Is All It Took to Shift the Odds in Trump's Favor on Polymarket Bruce Golding / International Business Times : $30 Million In Polymarket ‘Voodoo’ Bets Favoring Trump May Be Work Of One Wealthy Backer Polymarket : Popular Vote Winner 2024 IJR : ‘Influenced’: Handful Of Bettors Dump Millions On Trump, Massively Skewing Betting Odds Tyler Durden / ZeroHedge News : Trump's Polymarket Surge Powered By $30 Million Bet By Just 4 Accounts X: Nic Carter / @nic__carter : It's pretty obvious it's not just a lone trader that's upwardly manipulating Polymarket since all bookies and prediction markets give Trump roughly the same odds. The real divide is between the markets and the press/pundit driven proprietary models, which are more bullish Harris [image] Jim Bianco / @biancoresearch : 1/8 Furthering my argument that the election betting markets are accurate, a 🧵that Trump is proper. That said, Trump is not leading by much with 16 days to go—more than enough time to change this trend. Betting markets, Oct 19 close. Trump is trading between 55 and 59. [image] Matthew Green / @matthew_d_green : I guess prediction markets might be useful someday, but in the meantime they seem incredibly easy way to game. https://gizmodo.com/... Lily / @nope_its_lily : There's a lot of talk on here about the Polymarket odds and the mysterious trader Fredi9999/Michie who moved them, and I think it's an interesting topic, and also related to the broader overvaluation we see in the US (and Indian) markets. Carl Quintanilla / @carlquintanilla : More scrutiny of #Polymarket — this time from the @FT: “.. a small group of traders who have big budgets .. might want to move the price a few percentage points . . . to affect public beliefs ..” https://www.ft.com/... [image]

Washington Post Lisa Bonos

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Discussion

  • @nic__carter Nic Carter on x
    It's pretty obvious it's not just a lone trader that's upwardly manipulating Polymarket since all bookies and prediction markets give Trump roughly the same odds. The real divide is between the markets and the press/pundit driven proprietary models, which are more bullish Harris …
  • @biancoresearch Jim Bianco on x
    1/8 Furthering my argument that the election betting markets are accurate, a 🧵that Trump is proper. That said, Trump is not leading by much with 16 days to go—more than enough time to change this trend. Betting markets, Oct 19 close. Trump is trading between 55 and 59. [image]
  • @matthew_d_green Matthew Green on x
    I guess prediction markets might be useful someday, but in the meantime they seem incredibly easy way to game. https://gizmodo.com/...
  • @nope_its_lily Lily on x
    There's a lot of talk on here about the Polymarket odds and the mysterious trader Fredi9999/Michie who moved them, and I think it's an interesting topic, and also related to the broader overvaluation we see in the US (and Indian) markets.
  • @carlquintanilla Carl Quintanilla on x
    More scrutiny of #Polymarket — this time from the @FT: “.. a small group of traders who have big budgets .. might want to move the price a few percentage points . . . to affect public beliefs ..” https://www.ft.com/... [image]