TrendForce: TSMC's global foundry revenue share will hit ~64% in 2024, up from 51% in 2019, while Samsung's share is set to drop to ~10%, down from 16% in 2019
Jiyoung Sohn / Wall Street Journal :
Context & Ripple Effects
The projection extends a multi-year divergence between the two leading foundries: TSMC had already reported rising first-quarter revenue and a substantial 2024 capital-spending plan in its first-quarter outlook, while Samsung's share gains in early-year market data were modest.
It matters because foundry share is not merely a quarterly sales metric: it reflects who can convert manufacturing investment into contracted production for chip designers. First-quarter market-share data had already placed TSMC far ahead of Samsung.
First-order effects
- TSMC would deepen its revenue-share lead, giving it greater leverage in allocating capacity and setting the commercial terms for leading manufacturing work.
- Samsung's projected decline would make its foundry business a more distant second-place competitor, increasing pressure to win volume or improve the economics of its manufacturing offerings.
Second-order effects
- Chip designers seeking supply diversity may have fewer scaled alternatives to TSMC for advanced production, making sourcing decisions more consequential even when customers retain multiple suppliers.
- The gap reinforces the importance of capital-expenditure execution: TSMC's previously signaled 2024 investment plan can compound its scale advantage, while rivals must justify comparable investment with less revenue share.
Third-order effects
- If this trajectory persists, the foundry market becomes more concentrated around a single manufacturing leader, raising the strategic value of credible second-source capacity for customers and governments.
- The pattern fits an industry in which long investment cycles and customer commitments can reinforce incumbency; a reversal would require rivals to translate manufacturing investment into sustained customer demand, not just short-term share movement.
The trend: Advanced chip manufacturing is consolidating around fabs that can continuously fund capacity and convert it into long-term customer production commitments.