A look at Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market with a focus on elections that has raised $70M+ and traded $350M+ in predictions on the US election
Prediction markets can provide a clear signal through even the most deafening noise. That's why Americans are obsessively refreshing this one.
Wall Street Journal Ben Cohen
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Analysis
Discussion
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@polymarket
@polymarket
on x
Trump's election odds just hit 70%. Yet another all-time high. [image]
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@polymarket
@polymarket
on x
98% chance it was a real gun. Rumor dispelled. [image]
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@polymarket
@polymarket
on x
Trump just stood up and raised his first after getting SHOT. Odds he wins just shot up to 65%. [image]
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@austin_rief
Austin Rief
on x
Trump's chances to win the 2024 Election are up 8% in the last 30 minutes on Polymarket.
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@steve_hanke
Steve Hanke
on x
At 7:40 pm ET, following reports that Pres. Trump was SHOT IN THE EAR at his Saturday rally, his chances of winning the 2024 US Presidential election have SURGED by 10 percentage points in the past hour. He now leads with a 68% chance of victory in Polymarket. [image]
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@wsj
@wsj
on x
Will Joe Biden drop out? It's not just the biggest question in America. It's also the newest hot market. https://www.wsj.com/... https://www.wsj.com/...
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@kapursanat
Sanat
on x
other @Polymarket odds that moved in the aftermath of the assassination attempt biden less likely to drop out (makes sense) trump slightly less likely to go to jail (pretty illiquid) marco rubio's odds of being VP nominee went up [image]