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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Alibaba slashes prices for its AI services by up to 97%, leading Baidu to offer free Ernie AI-based services; ByteDance priced its services cheaply last week

Bloomberg :

Bloomberg

Context & Ripple Effects

Alibaba had already cut prices across more than 100 core cloud products in China, creating a broader discounting backdrop before this sharper AI-services move. The escalation matters because Baidu answered by removing the price barrier for Ernie services rather than merely matching a lower tariff.

The episode became an early marker of sustained rivalry: ByteDance later paired cloud expansion with lower prices, while Baidu and Alibaba eventually raised certain AI-computing and storage prices—evidence that pricing was being repeatedly reset rather than moving in one direction.

First-order effects

  • Alibaba sharply lowers the immediate cost of its AI services, increasing pressure on Baidu and ByteDance to defend developer and customer demand.
  • Baidu makes Ernie AI-based services free in direct response, shifting its near-term competition from paid access toward adoption and service differentiation.

Second-order effects

  • Cheap or free AI access makes pricing a weaker differentiator among Chinese platform providers, forcing rivals to compete more on model capability, cloud integration, and distribution.
  • The move extends Alibaba’s earlier broad core-cloud price reductions into AI services, increasing pressure on cloud-service revenue per workload where customers can readily compare offerings.

Third-order effects

  • If repeated price resets persist, AI providers will need to recover economics through higher-volume usage, bundled cloud services, or differentiated premium capabilities rather than standalone entry-level AI pricing.
  • The later decision to make Ernie broadly free suggests that zero-price access can become a durable customer-acquisition tool, though the subsequent price increases show that underlying compute costs can still constrain that strategy.

The trend: This is part of a compute-economics squeeze in which falling AI service prices accelerate adoption but make durable monetization increasingly dependent on scale, bundling, and differentiated services.

Discussion

  • @glynmoody.bsky.social Glyn Moody on bluesky
    hard to see this #AI bubble lasting long...already popping in #china [embedded post]