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Chronicles

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ASML reports Q4 revenue of €7.2B and net profit up 9% YoY to €2B, both above est., orders grew 3x QoQ to €9B+, and expects 2024 net sales to be similar to 2023

ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS), Europe's biggest technology company by market value, on Wednesday reported better …

Reuters Toby Sterling

Context & Ripple Effects

ASML entered the quarter after a 2023 run of stronger-than-expected results, including a sharp Q1 revenue and profit increase and a higher full-year growth outlook after Q2. By Q3, however, it was guiding to flat sales in 2024, making the contrast between a strong order intake and a flat near-term sales outlook consequential.

The results suggest that demand for ASML's systems remained firm even as the company prepared investors for a pause in annual revenue growth. That distinction matters because bookings provide a nearer-term read on customer purchasing intent than recognized sales.

First-order effects

  • ASML beats quarterly revenue and profit expectations while maintaining its view that 2024 net sales will be broadly unchanged from 2023.
  • Orders rising to more than €9 billion give ASML a larger pool of committed demand to convert into future revenue, despite the flat annual sales outlook.

Second-order effects

  • Customers placing orders now may be locking in equipment capacity ahead of delivery, while ASML must balance that backlog against the production and delivery cadence implied by its 2024 guidance.
  • The divergence between bookings and near-term sales shifts attention from quarterly earnings growth to order conversion and delivery execution; ASML's earlier flat-2024 outlook becomes the key constraint on how quickly demand appears in revenue.

Third-order effects

  • If elevated bookings persist while annual sales remain constrained, semiconductor-equipment demand could become increasingly defined by long order cycles rather than contemporaneous revenue growth.
  • That pattern would make backlog, delivery capacity, and customer timing more important indicators of equipment-market conditions than a single quarter's sales performance.

The trend: The report is one data point in a semiconductor-equipment cycle where customer order commitments can strengthen ahead of the revenue recognized from those systems.

Discussion

  • @asmlcompany @asmlcompany on x
    $ASML expects Q1 2024 net sales between €5.0 billion and €5.5 billion and a gross margin between 48% and 49%.
  • @asmlcompany @asmlcompany on x
    Wennink: “The semiconductor industry continues to work through the bottom of the cycle. Although our customers are still not certain about the shape of the semiconductor market recovery this year, there are some positive signs.”
  • @asmlcompany @asmlcompany on x
    CEO Peter Wennink: “ASML achieved another strong year in 2023 with 30% growth, ending with total net sales for the year of €27.6 billion, a gross margin of 51.3% and a backlog of €39 billion.”
  • @thetranscript_ @thetranscript_ on x
    ASML CEO: “Our strong order intake in the fourth quarter clearly supports future demand...In spite of the positive signs..., we maintain our conservative view for the total year and expect 2024 revenue to be similar to 2023” $ASML [image]
  • @asmlcompany @asmlcompany on x
    BREAKING: $ASML reports €27.6 billion net sales and €7.8 billion net income in 2023; 2024 expected to be a transition year with sales similar to 2023: https://www.asml.com/... [image]
  • @dnystedt Dan Nystedt on x
    ASML's 4th quarter net profit hit €2 billion euros (US$2.17 billion), beating the €1.87 billion expected, on sales of €7.2 billion, Reuters reports, as orders for its semiconductor equipment more than tripled to €9.19 billion in Q4, from €2.6 billion in Q3, with €5.6...
  • @dnystedt Dan Nystedt on x
    2/2 ASML's full year 2023 sales rose 30% to €27.6 billion and net profit hit €7.8 billion, on strong global demand for its chip equipment, it said. ASML maintained a cautious outlook for 2024 revenue to be similar to 2023, as the semiconductor industry continues to recover and...
  • @techfund1 @techfund1 on x
    Record quarterly bookings for $ASML driven by record memory bookings, logic also bouncing back, shares up 7%. ASML CEO: “The semiconductor industry continues to work through the bottom of the cycle. Although our customers are still not certain about the shape of the... [image]
  • @thetranscript_ @thetranscript_ on x
    $ASML CEO: “The semiconductor industry continues to work through the bottom of the cycle. Although our customers are still not certain about the shape of the semiconductor market recovery this year, there are some positive signs. Industry endmarket inventory levels continue to...…
  • @asmlcompany @asmlcompany on x
    Wennink: “We shipped the first modules of the first High NA EUV system, EXE:5000, to a customer before the end of the year.” [image]