ASML reports Q1 revenue up 91% YoY to €6.74B and net profit up nearly 3x YoY to €1.96B, beating estimates of €6.31B and €1.62B, respectively
ASML Holding NV (ASML.AS) beat first-quarter earnings forecasts on Wednesday on continued strong demand for its chip making equipment …
Context & Ripple Effects
This quarter opens a multi-year stretch of outsized results: ASML followed the 91% revenue jump by raising its 2023 growth forecast from 25% to 30%, guided 2024 flat six months later, then reaccelerated through the bookings surge behind the €30B–€35B 2025 outlook and ultimately a raised €43B–€45B range for 2026 — making this print the baseline of the whole arc.
It is also where ASML's pricing power became explicit: sources describe EUV price discussions with TSMC and a planned 10% DUV increase, paired internally with a one-time €20,000 share award for its ~45,000 employees that vests in 2030.
First-order effects
- Chipmakers led by TSMC absorb higher capital-equipment costs as ASML converts demand running past estimates into EUV price negotiations and a planned 10% hike on DUV systems.
- Despite the double beat, ASML shares fell more than 7% following the report, meaning public-market holders captured none of the upside on the day.
Second-order effects
- The vesting-in-2030 share bonus ties ~45,000 employees' payouts to long-term valuation, locking in the workforce through the capacity ramp the later forecasts depend on.
- Higher tool pricing flows into chipmakers' cost bases, giving ASML leverage over how quickly leading-edge capacity gets ordered — visible later in the swings between flat 2024 guidance and tripled quarterly bookings.
Third-order effects
- If the beat-and-raise pattern holds, lithography becomes the pricing anchor of the semiconductor supply chain, with one supplier effectively setting the cost floor of advanced chips.
- Chinese domestic DUV development is the structural counterweight: the market cut the stock more than 7% on that development, signaling investors treat homegrown lithography as the main threat to ASML's monopoly economics.
The trend: Chipmaking equipment has become the bottleneck layer of the semiconductor cycle, letting ASML repeatedly convert demand beats into price increases and higher sales forecasts.