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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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AMD reports Q3 revenue up 4% YoY to $5.8B, vs. $5.7B est., net income up 353% YoY to $299M, Data Center revenue of $1.6B, and Q4 sales forecast below estimates

Chavi Mehta / Reuters :

Reuters Chavi Mehta

Context & Ripple Effects

This quarter is an early marker in AMD’s data-center buildout: the reported $1.6B segment base was followed by 38% data-center revenue growth to $2.3B in Q4 2023, even as the company’s near-term outlook remained uneven.

Later results show the scale of that shift: AMD reported data-center revenue of $2.8B in Q2 2024 and subsequently $3.7B in Q1 2025. The immediate significance of this report is the contrast between an improving profit profile and a forecast that still left investors focused on execution.

First-order effects

  • AMD’s below-consensus Q4 sales outlook becomes the near-term benchmark for investors, tempering the significance of the quarterly revenue and earnings beat.
  • The $1.6B data-center result identifies that business as a meaningful contributor, while the company must still convert demand into enough near-term revenue to meet market expectations.

Second-order effects

  • Competitors and data-center customers gain a clearer comparison point for AMD’s pace of server-chip adoption; subsequent 80% data-center growth in Q1 2024 suggests that segment became central to that comparison.
  • AMD’s valuation and product narrative become more sensitive to guidance revisions than to aggregate revenue alone, as investors weigh the timing of data-center growth against other business lines.

Third-order effects

  • If data-center growth continues to outpace AMD’s overall sales, the company’s business mix will become increasingly tied to AI and cloud-infrastructure capital spending rather than its legacy end markets.
  • The pattern points to a semiconductor market in which suppliers’ results are judged more heavily on their ability to translate infrastructure demand into deliverable systems revenue, though quarterly guidance can remain volatile.

The trend: AMD’s results are one step in the broader shift toward data-center and AI infrastructure demand becoming the primary driver of chip-company growth narratives.

Discussion

  • @kristinaparts Kristina Partsinevelos on x
    AMD CEO Lisa Su on earnings call: “we now expect data center GPU revenue to be approximately $400M in the fourth quarter and exceed $2B in 2024 as revenue ramps throughout the year. This growth would make MI300 the fastest product to ramp to $1 billion in sales in $AMD history.”
  • @ericjhonsa Eric Jhonsa on x
    $AMD beats Q3 estimates but guides for Q4 revenue of $6.1B (+/- $300M) vs. a $6.39B consensus. DC revenue flat Y/Y, Client +42%, Gaming -8%, Embedded -5%. Stock is down 4.4% AH. [image]
  • @ericjhonsa Eric Jhonsa on x
    Think the upshot remains that $AMD is a story with cross-currents for now. Positives: Epyc and Ryzen Mobile share gains, improving PC CPU demand, MI300X set to launch Negatives: Shaky server CPU demand amid spending shift towards GPUs/accelerators, Embedded inventory corrections
  • @ericjhonsa Eric Jhonsa on x
    $AMD pares its AH losses after Lisa Su says on the call that data center GPU revenue will top $2B in 2024 (this suggests it could be a high-single-digit % of total revenue).
  • @danielnewmanuv Daniel Newman on x
    Some thoughts on AMD Q3 results. A relatively strong Q3 for @AMD but another chip company with a conservative guide sending it down after hours. I like $AMD's prospects because it really hasn't benefitted from the #AI tailwind yet. Having said that, I think it needs to move...
  • @iancutress @iancutress on x
    Let's talk $AMD's Q3 2023 financials. Overall positive, increasing client revenue and operating income.🧵 Q3 Overall YoY: Revenue: $5800m, up 4% (GAAP) Gross Margin: 47%, up from 42% EPS: $0.18, up from $0.05 (Non-GAAP) Gross Margin: 51%, up from 50% EPS: $0.70, up from $0.67
  • @thetranscript_ @thetranscript_ on x
    AMD with a double beat with weaker-than-expected guide. CEO: “ We delivered strong revenue and earnings growth driven by demand for our Ryzen 7000 series PC processors and record server processor sales” $AMD: -4.4%AH [image]
  • @economyapp @economyapp on x
    $AMD AMD Q3 FY23: • Revenue +4% Y/Y to $5.8B ($0.1B beat). • Gross margin 47% (+5pp Y/Y). • Operating margin 4% (+5pp Y/Y). • Non-GAAP EPS $0.70 ($0.02 beat). Q4 FY23 guidance: • Revenue ~$6.1B ($0.3B miss). • Strong Data Center growth but gaming weakness. [image]
  • @thetranscript_ @thetranscript_ on x
    $AMD CFO: “In the fourth quarter, we expect to see strong growth in Data Center and continued momentum in Client, partially offset by lower sales in the Gaming segment and additional softening of demand in the embedded markets”
  • @sarbjeetjohal Sarbjeet Johal on x
    AMD MI 300 will be the fastest growing product to a billion dollar business for @AMD says @LisaSu during earnings call. Stock snaps back... after hours after these comments. Why was it down after hours? Margins a bit lower yoy for @AMD! Minor datacenter miss as well. Let's... [im…
  • @donmiami3 Don Johnson on x
    $AMD down 4.33% on earnings Well so much for the Gen 9 Super Sexy Processor
  • @consensusgurus @consensusgurus on x
    AMD $AMD Q3 Summary Not... not great. Not an $NVDA quarter, that's for sure. Looking to the call to translate the guidance shortfall and the lack of cash generation. [image]
  • @stocksavvyshay Shay Boloor on x
    @MrAndrewSalamon Weak data center guidance but really 2023 was a lost year for $AMD. This really is a potential 2024 growth story. Hopefully on the CC they'll provide some color for Q1.
  • @endless_frank @endless_frank on x
    AMD's revenue guidance is horrendous. Everything is slowing. Why the fuck is $SPX unable to have a 2%+ down day or a 1% down overnight?????? A world filled with uncertainty, deteriorating fundamentals and the highest rates since 2007 should lead to vol in risk asset prices!!!
  • @benbajarin Ben Bajarin on x
    Consistent with Intel, momentum in client for @AMD helps results. Data center was flat this Q but a good guide showing increase in data center demand and continued client demand.
  • @iancutress @iancutress on x
    MI300 GPUs will be $400m revenue in Q4, $2b+ in 2024 total. Fastest AMD ramp of a product to $1b revenue in its history