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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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HP reports Q2 revenue down 22% YoY to $12.91B, vs. $13.07B est., Personal Systems revenue down 29% YoY to $8.18B, and Printing net revenue down 5% YoY to $4.74B

Reuters

Context & Ripple Effects

This is the deepest quarter of a slide that began with the Q1 report three months earlier, when revenue fell 19% and Personal Systems dropped 24%. At -22% overall and -29% for PCs, Q2 marks the trough of the post-pandemic unwind — while Printing holds nearly flat at -5%, echoing its steady single-digit declines across every quarter of the cycle.

The surrounding coverage frames how temporary the collapse was: by the November Q4 report the decline had narrowed to 6.5%, and two years later the fiscal Q2 2025 print shows growth of 3.3%. The question this article answers is where the bottom was — and it turns out to be here.

First-order effects

  • HP's Personal Systems segment absorbs the brunt — $8.18B, down 29% YoY — as commercial and consumer PC purchases made during the pandemic run off; Printing's $4.74B, down just 5%, cushions the total miss against the $13.07B estimate.
  • HPQ investors take the hit directly, extending the pattern from the prior quarter's Q3 miss that sent the stock down more than 10%.

Second-order effects

  • With PC volumes collapsing faster than Printing, HP's mix shifts toward its higher-margin consumables and printing business — raising the stakes for any further erosion there, since the segment can no longer be carried by hardware strength.
  • The depth of the decline pressures the broader PC supply chain and Windows OEM channel, as vendors sitting on excess inventory compete harder on price into a shrinking demand pool.

Third-order effects

  • The pattern across these five quarters — steep 2023 declines narrowing through Q4, then returning to growth by fiscal 2025 — points to a completed inventory-and-demand correction rather than structural loss, with the PC market normalizing toward replacement-cycle economics after the pandemic pull-forward.

The trend: PC demand is working through the post-pandemic bust cycle, with mid-2023 marking the trough before HP's revenue base stabilizes around Printing's steady declines and a recovering Personal Systems business.

Discussion

  • @pkedrosky Paul Kedrosky on x
    I can't decide if I'm more started by how terrible most of HP's business are right now, and or how the printer business keeps hanging on. Both! HP Sales Decline Worse Than Expected as PC Slump Continues https://www.bloomberg.com/... [image]