TrendForce: DRAM's average price fell 31.4% in Q3 and 34.4% in Q4 2022, among the worst drops since 2006; Samsung plans to spend $30B+ in 2023 to grow capacity
but it's not enough to beat Samsung José Adorno / BGR : iPhone 15 will feature up to 8GB of RAM, TrendForce reports Omar Sohail / Wccftech : Apple To Increase RAM ‘Capacity And Specifications’ Of The iPhone 15 Series, States Latest Report, Possibly Referring To Faster Memory DigiTimes : Server DRAM to account for 37.6% of total bit output in 2023, says TrendForce Muhammad Zuhair / Appuals.com : Samsung & Companies Witness Significant DRAM Price Collapse
Context & Ripple Effects
DRAM pricing had already turned down in Q2 2022, when TrendForce recorded a 10.6% year-over-year contract-price decline after two years without one. The far steeper Q3 and Q4 falls show that demand weakness was accelerating rather than stabilizing.
Samsung's planned capacity spending runs against TrendForce's earlier forecast for record-low DRAM bit-growth in 2023. The mismatch matters because output additions can prolong a price correction even as producers target higher-volume segments such as server DRAM.
First-order effects
- Samsung is committing more than $30 billion to memory-capacity growth while DRAM prices are collapsing, adding supply-side pressure to an already weak pricing environment.
- Server DRAM is projected to represent 37.6% of 2023 bit output, making server buyers a larger determinant of memory producers' production mix.
Second-order effects
- Other DRAM suppliers face a sharper trade-off between matching Samsung's capacity investment and protecting pricing in a market where demand growth is forecast to be weak.
- Device makers planning higher RAM specifications, including the reported iPhone 15 increase, gain access to cheaper memory inputs while suppliers seek volume in server DRAM.
Third-order effects
- The episode reinforces that memory capacity decisions lag demand: investments made through a downturn can deepen the trough before supply discipline restores pricing.
- The later revenue recovery from the 2023 trough shows why broad DRAM averages mask different end markets; shifts toward higher-value memory demand can reshape the cycle's eventual upside.
The trend: Memory is a cyclical, segmented market in which capacity expansion and changing server demand can drive prices sharply lower before a later recovery favors higher-value products.