TrendForce estimates DRAM in 2026 will bring in over 4x as much revenue as the 2023 trough, reaching a record ~$231B, driven by AI industry demand for HBM chips
Jiyoung Sohn / Wall Street Journal :
Context & Ripple Effects
The projection marks a sharp reversal from the memory downturn, when DRAM contract prices began falling in 2022 and bit-growth expectations weakened. AI-oriented memory demand is now reshaping who leads the market: SK Hynix moved ahead of Samsung in DRAM revenue in early 2025 on HBM strength.
The key constraint is supply timing. TrendForce expects limited new high-end memory capacity before 2027 while data centers absorb more than 70% of 2026 output, making HBM availability as consequential as aggregate DRAM demand.
First-order effects
- The forecast materially raises the near-term revenue outlook for DRAM suppliers with high-end memory exposure, particularly as HBM demand lifts the value of each memory system sold.
- Data-center buyers face a tighter pool of high-end memory through 2026, with their expected share of output leaving less flexibility for other buyers.
Second-order effects
- Memory makers and their customers will have stronger incentives to prioritize HBM-capable production and secure supply earlier, rather than treat DRAM as a broadly interchangeable component.
- Limited high-end capacity can shift competition from chip pricing alone toward access to qualified memory supply, reinforcing the advantage of suppliers already established in HBM.
Third-order effects
- If the supply schedule holds, DRAM’s cycle may become more tied to AI infrastructure build-outs and product mix than to the broader PC and handset demand swings that defined earlier downturns.
- The concentration of high-end memory demand in data centers could make memory availability a recurring constraint on AI-system deployment until additional capacity arrives, though the durability of that constraint depends on demand and expansion plans holding up.
The trend: AI infrastructure is turning high-bandwidth memory from a premium DRAM niche into a central capacity and revenue driver for the memory market.