Ampere Analysis: a decade-long original TV show spending boom is expected to slow to a crawl in 2023; streaming services will cut growth from 25% in 2022 to 8%
Alex Barker / Financial Times :
Context & Ripple Effects
Ampere's 2023 forecast lands after its own $23B+ original-content projection for Apple TV+, Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO Max, and Netflix — spending more than twice 2019 levels — and after PwC already flagged decelerating US streaming revenue growth, from 19.5% in 2021 to 13% in 2022 (PwC's US streaming forecast). Today's call cuts the growth rate itself from 25% to 8%, marking the end of the decade-long originals arms race rather than a dip in absolute spend.
The significance is that the correction arrives while streamers are still scaling toward dominance: Ampere's later work shows the same services outspending commercial broadcasters on content for the first time in 2025 and crossing $100B in annual content spend by 2026 — a plateau in growth, not a retreat.
First-order effects
- Apple TV+, Amazon Prime, Disney+, HBO Max, and Netflix face a near-immediate commissioning slowdown, with the big five's original-content growth decelerating from 25% to 8% and production studios losing the volume of greenlights they built capacity for during the boom.
Second-order effects
- With subscription growth no longer funding the spend curve, streamers lean harder on advertising — the lever behind Ampere's later $17B US streaming ad-revenue forecast for 2025 — while independent producers compete for fewer commissions and pricing power shifts to buyers.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the industry's center of gravity completes its shift from broadcast to streaming: Ampere's trajectory has streamers overtaking commercial broadcasters in content spend by 2025 and crossing $100B by 2026, but on a profitability-disciplined growth rate rather than the boom-era 25%.
The trend: Streaming content spending is transitioning from a subscriber-growth arms race to a mature, ad-and-margin-driven market where streamers dominate spend but no longer grow it at double-digit rates.