Predictions for 2023: Apple's AR/VR headset debut, Big Tech belt tightening, Netflix password crackdown, AI in more tech tools, less talk of crypto, and more
with an Apple headset debut 🔮AI goes from toy to tool with it coming to more software 🔮 iPhone RE (Regulators' Edition) https://www.wsj.com/... Christopher Mims / @mims : Tech That Will Change Your Life in 2023 @JoannaStern @nicnguyen and I look ahead at what may prove to be one of the most interesting years in tech in a decade, at least... https://www.wsj.com/...
Context & Ripple Effects
The Wall Street Journal's Mims, Stern, and Nguyen close out a prediction season that began with their own companion 2023 forecast a day earlier — this piece widens the lens from Meta's metaverse rivalry to a broader slate: Apple's long-teased headset finally debuting, AI embedding itself into everyday software, Big Tech cutting costs, and Netflix charging for password sharing.
The Apple call lands after years of buildup: reporting on the mass-market AR headset's development challenges dates back to late 2021, and Gurman's account of a device built for short bursts rather than all-day wear set expectations for what a first-generation product could actually do.
First-order effects
- Apple's headset debut would move the company from rumored entrant to shipping competitor in a category where Meta currently defines consumer expectations, with the product's burst-use design shaping how reviewers and buyers judge it.
- Netflix's password-sharing crackdown directly changes the economics for millions of borrowed accounts, converting non-paying viewers into churn risks or new revenue.
Second-order effects
- AR/VR startups enter the year with funding already collapsed — PitchBook counted a 74% YoY drop to $800M for October 2022–March 2023 — so an Apple launch becomes the industry's best hope for luring VCs back, while failure deepens the freeze.
- Meta's metaverse push faces its first direct hardware rival from Apple, forcing a comparison of ecosystems rather than concept videos, and Netflix's move pressures Disney+ and HBO Max to answer on paid sharing of their own.
Third-order effects
- Belt-tightening plus AI-in-every-tool points to a structural turn: Big Tech shifting from growth-era headcount expansion to monetizing existing platforms, with AI features becoming the default way software justifies price increases.
- If crypto recedes from mainstream tech discourse, capital and talent consolidate around applied AI and hardware — the categories these same pages flagged as the decade's real bets.
The trend: Tech's 2023 agenda marks the pivot from pandemic-era expansion to extracting value from assets already built — headsets, shared passwords, and AI woven into existing software.