Sources: some Anthropic investors discussed a ~$1.5T valuation for its IPO, down from ~$2T they had expected, after disclosures showed slowing Q3 revenue growth
Some current Anthropic investors and prospective investors in its upcoming initial public offering are weighing a lower valuation …
Context & Ripple Effects
Anthropic’s valuation expectations had climbed from VC offers reaching $800B in April and a proposed $900B-plus private round in May to bankers’ August discussions of a $100B-plus IPO at a $2T valuation.
The lower valuation discussion puts greater weight on the company’s disclosed Q3 growth trajectory rather than on the long-range revenue projections investors had been using to price the offering.
First-order effects
- Current and prospective Anthropic investors are reassessing an IPO valuation around $1.5T rather than the roughly $2T level discussed in August.
- Anthropic’s IPO pricing conversation becomes more sensitive to evidence of revenue-growth deceleration, despite the company’s earlier 2028 revenue projections.
Second-order effects
- Banks arranging the offering face a narrower basis for presenting a $2T valuation to prospective buyers, affecting the pricing and allocation conversation around a potential IPO.
- Other AI companies seeking late-stage or public-market capital face a clearer investor demand for growth evidence alongside ambitious long-range revenue forecasts.
Third-order effects
- If public-market investors keep applying lower multiples when growth decelerates, AI-lab valuations will be set less by private-round momentum and more by the durability of reported revenue growth.
- The prospective listing illustrates a broader migration of AI financing from private optionality toward public-market scrutiny of revenue and valuation discipline.
The trend: The public AI-lab capital cycle is shifting from valuation-setting through private fundraising to valuation-setting through disclosed operating performance.
Related: Public AI-Lab Capital Cycle · AI Capital Stack · Anthropic · Anthropic’s $190B-$200B 2028 revenue projection · Bankers discussed a $100B-plus Anthropic IPO
Related Coverage
- Anthropic Revenue Jumps to $16.8 Billion in Quarter Before IPO Bloomberg
- Anthropic Stands Alone as Rest of US IPO Market Slows to a Crawl Bloomberg
- Anthropic's valuation could be slashed by $500bn Telegraph
- What it means for investors — The success of the entire AI sector is hanging on the fate of Anthropic and OpenAI. Motley Fool · Jeremy Bowman
- Anthropic IPO: Market forces and enterprise AI effects TechTarget · John Moore
- You Have No Idea How Close the AI Bubble Is to Popping The Algorithmic Bridge · Alberto Romero
- Anthropic Narrows Revenue Gap With OpenAI Ahead of Its IPO PYMNTS.com
- Sources: Anthropic told investors that distillation accounts for 5% to 7% of its revenue; its rapid but slowing revenue growth could weigh on its IPO valuation The Information · Cory Weinberg
- Sources: Anthropic told investors that its Q3 revenue hit $16.8B, up from $11.5B in Q2, and that it was profitable on an adjusted basis in Q3, ahead of its IPO Financial Times
- Anthropic Valuation May Fall to $1.5 Trillion as Growth Slows Seoul Economic Daily · Kim Chang-young
- Anthropic Valuation Falls $500 Billion as Growth Slows Seoul Economic Daily
- Nearly 40% of the S&P 500 is in a bear market. Here are 10 of those stocks that analysts say can gain up to 81%. MarketWatch · Philip van Doorn
- Some Anthropic Investors Now See a $1.5 Trillion IPO, Not $2 Trillion Yahoo Finance · Omor Ibne Ehsan
- Here's how the CoreWeave sell-off is affecting OpenAI vs. Anthropic valuations CNBC · Oliver Renick
- Anthropic Might Be Worth ‘Only’ $1.5 Trillion. Why It Isn't a Disaster for the AI Trade. Barron's Online · Adam Clark
- Anthropic Could IPO Any Time Now, But Some of the People Who Matter Most Don't Want It Gizmodo · Ece Yildirim
- Anthropic IPO valuation expectations cool as revenue growth slows Proactive
- Investors Turn on Data Center Builders as Rising Interest Rates Dampen the AI Trade Newcomer
- Sources: Anthropic told investors that its Q3 revenue hit $16.8B, up from $11.5B in Q2, and that it was profitable on an adjusted basis in Q3, ahead of its IPO Financial Times
- Could an Anthropic IPO put your 401(k) at risk? The AI safety debate hits a new dimension. Dow Jones Newswires · Christine Ji
- Is Anthropic worth $2 trillion? How about $1.5 trillion? Yahoo Finance · Michael B. Kelley
Discussion
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@dseetharaman
Deepa Seetharaman
on x
New from my colleagues @Reuters: some current + prospective Anthropic investors are disappointed by the co's most recent revenue growth, sources say. Those investors are starting to think the co should go for a $1.5 trillion valuation, not ~$2 trillion. https://www.reuters.com/..…
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@vanquan_titans
Van Quan
on x
@Techmeme 1.5 trillion is still massive, but revenue growth is concerning
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@michaelsikand
Michael Sikand
on x
So if Anthropic goes out at $1.5T versus $2T I think the valuation starts to make a bit more sense. At $100B ARR by year end, 15x sales feels more reasonable. I think in general the IPO prices set have been very greedy and are why most have underperformed.
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@wintonark
Brett Winton
on x
only 32 companies in US history have added more than $30 billion in revenue over 12 months (2026 dollars) Anthropic, by multiples, has just registered the most remarkable 12 months in business history
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@simonw
Simon Willison
on x
“Anthropic told investors on Wednesday distillation accounted for 5 per cent to 7 per cent of revenue” If true, and Q2 revenue was $11.5B, then that's more than half a billion dollars spent by other labs to distill Anthropic's models! https://www.ft.com/... [image]
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@gavinsbaker
Gavin Baker
on x
TLDR; we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy. Should force the market to move away from extreme focus on Anthropic/OpenAI ARR numbers to hyperscale growth rates, which are a much better metric for AI at this point given they capture Muse, G…
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@melvininvests
Melvin
on x
I genuinely don't think Anthropic should IPO this year. And personally, I think the company is worth closer to $1 TRILLION, not the $1.5 trillion or $2 trillion valuations being discussed. Don't get me wrong, Anthropic is an absolutely incredible business, its annualized revenue …
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@edzitron
Ed Zitron
on x
Great, i'm sure this will be super easy to do given that hyperscalers do not break out their AI revenues or declare their actual megawatts or really give any insight into anything to do with the economics of AI, other than Microsoft lying about bringing “gigawatts” online
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@edzitron
Ed Zitron
on x
Ed Zitron (@edzitron) on X
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@firstadopter
Tae Kim
on x
I'm also hearing that “some” investors would like to pay less for the hottest IPO in human history too. Crazy!
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@edzitron
Ed Zitron
on x
[in the voice of home team announcer reading that other team scored touchdown] we will probably never get another ARR number from Anthropic, which is healthy
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@scaling01
@scaling01
on x
I don't mind the market being delusional if that means I can buy in lower at IPO but a huge jump in capabilities happened with Anthropic's 5.5 models that isn't yet showing up in the revenue numbers and you want to be bearish? do you really need a reminder what happened after Ant…
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@shanumathew93
Shanu Mathew
on x
AI infrastructure 👀 “*Every* open source inference cloud I am aware of is growing faster both sequentially and YoY than either Anthropic or OpenAI. And their combined compute spend is becoming material.”
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@justjoshinyou13
Josh You
on x
If I'm not mistaken, Anthropic's 85% gross margin and >40% compute margin from this Bloomberg story implies that 70-75% of their compute is now going to R&D. https://www.bloomberg.com/...
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@timfduffy
Tim Duffy
on x
Previous reporting had Anthropic reaching $65B run rate by the end of July. Unless there's an accounting difference between that number and the new $16.8 billion Q3 revenue, this points to a significant revenue growth slowdown in the last two months.
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@krishnanrohit
Rohit
on x
If Ant growth is indeed slowing and they're having to refocus on profitability and growth it's going to create a pretty cataclysmic sequence of dominoes across the startup landscape. Lab liquidity currently drives most of the data market, all of the RL market, and a substantial c…
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@amitisinvesting
Amit
on x
FINANCIAL TIMES: - ANTHROPIC Q3 REVENUE COMES IN AT $16.8B - Q2 REVENUE WAS $11.5B, REVENUE GREW 46% QoQ Well, Nasdaq Futures are getting hammered after hours and the Semis continue their downslide because it seems like Wall Street is not impressed...especially if these are the n…
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@carlquintanilla
Carl Quintanilla
on bluesky
“.. investors who attended Anthropic's investor day on Wednesday in San Francisco discussed a valuation of around $1.5 trillion, three of the people said, a significant step down from the roughly $2 trillion valuation that investors had previously expected ..” — www.reuters.com…
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r/BetterOffline
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Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say
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r/wallstreetbets
r
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Investors lower Anthropic's valuation over slow revenue growth, discuss cutting it from $2T to $1.5T, sources say
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r/StockMarket
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EXCLUSIVE Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say
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r/singularity
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Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say
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r/WallstreetWhales
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Investors lower Anthropic's valuation over slow revenue growth, discuss cutting it from $2T to $1.5T, sources say
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r/antiai
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Investors temper Anthropic IPO valuation expectations over revenue growth slowdown, sources say