NFC Cometh? 1M Android NFC Devices Shipping Each Week, And Prototypes Show iPhone 5 Is Next
Google I/O is in full swing, and stories have been pouring out at a fairly steady pace: Sergey finally demoed Google Glass, Google Drive passed 10 million users and is available on iOS, and we all got a look at Jelly Bean — to name a few.
Context & Ripple Effects
Android had already added NFC capabilities in its 2.3.3 platform release in 2011, so the reported shipping pace marks a move from platform support toward meaningful hardware distribution. The parallel report that an iPhone prototype includes NFC is unconfirmed, but it puts Apple’s next handset at the center of whether NFC becomes a cross-platform feature rather than an Android-led one.
First-order effects
- Google and Android handset makers are placing NFC-capable phones into the market at a reported rate of 1 million units a week, expanding the addressable base for NFC-enabled services.
- Apple faces heightened expectations around NFC in its next iPhone, although the prototype report is still unconfirmed.
Second-order effects
- Android’s growing NFC hardware base gives Google a distribution advantage over Apple for any phone-based service that depends on NFC being present on users’ devices.
- An Apple NFC launch would force handset competition away from merely offering the chip and toward which platform can attract compatible services and users first.
Third-order effects
- If Android shipment momentum persists and Apple adopts the technology, NFC is positioned to become a baseline smartphone capability, with platform control shaped by software support and device distribution rather than chip availability alone.
The trend: Smartphone platforms are turning embedded sensors and radios into competitive distribution layers, with adoption depending on how quickly hardware reach becomes usable services.