Apple Is Beating Android In The U.S., Despite Reports To The Contrary
Apple appears to have taken control of 50% of the smartphone market in the first quarter of 2012, despite a report to the contrary by NPD this morning. — NPD put out a press release saying Android …
Context & Ripple Effects
Android had been gaining rapidly in U.S. handset reporting in 2010, but a 2011 Nielsen reading suggested its lead over iOS might no longer be widening. Apple also reached the top of global smartphone-vendor rankings in 2011, making the U.S. measurement dispute consequential beyond a single quarterly league table.
The central issue is not a settled reversal: Apple’s apparent 50% U.S. share is unconfirmed and conflicts with NPD’s reading. But Apple’s confirmed 73% share of cell-phone profits means a change in sales-share leadership would reinforce an already disproportionate economic position.
First-order effects
- Apple and Android enter the quarter with competing public accounts of U.S. leadership, leaving NPD’s market-share framing directly contested.
- Apple’s profit concentration gives the reported sales-share shift added weight for investors and handset partners even before the share estimate is resolved.
Second-order effects
- Rival handset makers and carriers have less reason to treat a single market-share release as a definitive guide to U.S. consumer demand when leading measurements diverge.
- The contest shifts attention from unit leadership alone toward the relationship between device share and profit capture, where Apple already holds a confirmed advantage.
Third-order effects
- If iOS can translate high profit share into sustained U.S. sales leadership, smartphone competition will increasingly be judged by platform economics rather than shipment volume alone.
The trend: The U.S. smartphone market is becoming a two-platform contest in which conflicting share measurements matter because Apple’s profit lead makes sales leadership strategically more valuable.