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NPD: Android Surging, BlackBerry Falling, Apple Flat

Here's a chart pretty much guaranteed to get teeth grinding in Cupertino - new data from NPD showing Android extending its lead as America's most popular mobile operating system.  —  The consumer research group says that Google's software …

MediaMemo Peter Kafka

Context & Ripple Effects

Two October measurements had already placed Android ahead among recent U.S. smartphone buyers and described its competitive advance against RIM and Apple. NPD's reading reinforces that buyer-acquisition lead with a third independent snapshot, while separating Android's gains from Apple's flat position and BlackBerry's decline.

The significance is competitive rather than merely statistical: Google’s software is improving its position in the same U.S. market where RIM and Apple are trying to win new smartphone customers.

First-order effects

  • Google and Android handset partners gain a stronger U.S. market-share narrative, while BlackBerry faces a documented loss of position and Apple lacks comparable share momentum in NPD’s data.

Second-order effects

  • RIM and Apple face greater pressure to improve new-buyer acquisition, as the earlier competitive challenge from Android is corroborated by another market-research source.

Third-order effects

  • If repeated buyer-share gains translate into durable installed-base gains, U.S. smartphone competition shifts toward an Android-led multi-handset ecosystem rather than a market anchored by BlackBerry’s earlier position.

The trend: U.S. smartphone competition is tilting toward Android as successive measurements show it gaining buyers while BlackBerry contracts and Apple holds steady.