Research: Samsung Has Sold 10M Galaxy S3′s, But 'iPhone 5′ Still The Most-Wanted Phone
You know a brand is doing something right when people go a little crazy for its products even before they've been announced. A new survey out from 451 Research/ChangeWave …
Context & Ripple Effects
Samsung entered late July with an August 15 Galaxy product announcement planned and a July 30 mobile-patent jury trial against Apple approaching. The Galaxy S3 sales figure gives Samsung a commercial benchmark alongside that product and legal competition.
The ChangeWave survey separates purchase intent from products already on shelves: Samsung has demonstrated shipments for a flagship device, while Apple retains consumer interest around an unannounced successor.
First-order effects
- Samsung can point to 10 million Galaxy S3 sales as evidence that its flagship has achieved substantial market traction before its next Galaxy announcement.
- Apple has survey evidence that the anticipated iPhone 5 leads buyer interest despite not being announced.
Second-order effects
- Samsung and Apple will compete using different demand signals—completed Galaxy S3 sales versus stated iPhone 5 purchase intent—making the next product cycle a test of conversion as well as installed demand.
- Samsung's August 15 reveal gains added importance as a chance to extend Galaxy momentum before Apple turns pre-launch interest into an available product.
Third-order effects
- If flagship sales and pre-announcement demand repeatedly diverge, smartphone competition will be judged increasingly on the ability to sustain consumer attention between product launches, not only on shipment milestones.
- The parallel patent trial shows that commercial leadership and product differentiation are being contested through both retail demand and intellectual-property claims.
The trend: Smartphone leadership is becoming a contest between demonstrated flagship sales and the consumer anticipation each vendor can carry into its next launch cycle.