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HP's Q4 Earnings Beat Street and Shares Rise

Computing giant Hewlett-Packard just reported its fourth-quarter results, and they're slightly better than expected, with some bad news mixed in.  —  HP's profit fell by 13 percent from the same period last year, to $1.01 a share.

AllThingsD Arik Hesseldahl

Context & Ripple Effects

A year ago HP beat the street amid sales declines while absorbing an $8.8 billion charge, so a modest Q4 beat with profit down 13% to $1.01 a share reads as continuity rather than surprise — Meg Whitman's turnaround is being judged on whether the declines keep shrinking. The pickup across eight outlets including Bloomberg and ZDNet reflects how closely HP's quarterly cadence is watched as a proxy for the broader PC-and-enterprise franchise.

The beat also validates guidance Whitman gave at HP's annual financial meeting in October 2013, when her remarks on upcoming revenue sent shares up 6% to $22.05 — today's rise extends that credibility run.

First-order effects

  • Shareholders reward the beat despite the 13% year-over-year profit decline, extending the stock momentum Whitman's October financial-meeting guidance started.

Second-order effects

  • With Whitman having publicly named Microsoft and Intel as outright competitors in October, HP's differentiation bets — like the Leap Motion touchless input built into the Envy 17 as touchscreens become standard in Windows 8 notebooks — become load-bearing for defending margins against commoditization.

Third-order effects

  • If the pattern of beating lowered expectations on shrinking profit holds, pressure will build on HP toward structural answers rather than incremental cost cuts — a mix shift toward software and services it seeded with acquisitions like Opsware, and continued portfolio pruning.

The trend: Under Meg Whitman, HP is running a credibility-first turnaround — small beats on declining profits that buy time while the PC business fights commoditization and new rivals.