Windows Phone sees big gains at the expense of BlackBerry and Symbian
Alright, so Microsoft is in no danger of toppling iOS or Android anytime soon. But the analytics firm Kantar has seen significant growth for Windows Phone, largely at the expense of BlackBerry.
Context & Ripple Effects
Kantar's latest panel data marks a turning point in an arc that began badly for Microsoft: back in early 2011, Windows Mobile was still outselling Windows Phone 7 in Q4 2010, and by mid-2011 analysts were only asking whether Windows Phone 7 might reverse Microsoft's mobile slide. Two years on, the question has shifted from survival to trajectory — Windows Phone is now posting significant share growth.
The notable detail is where those gains come from: largely at BlackBerry's expense, with Symbian also ceding ground, while Kantar itself and the headline framing both concede Microsoft remains far from threatening iOS or Android. The story drew wide pickup — Business Insider, VentureBeat, TechCrunch, BGR and others all ran it on or about April 1, 2013 — signaling how closely the market is watching whether a credible third ecosystem is forming.
First-order effects
- BlackBerry is the direct loser: its user base is the primary source of Windows Phone's new share, compounding the pressure on its just-launched BB10 platform to retain customers.
- Microsoft converts a stagnant position into measurable momentum, giving Windows Phone a growth narrative to bring to carrier and OEM partners who had treated it as marginal.
Second-order effects
- Carriers gain leverage from a strengthening third option: with Symbian effectively exiting and BlackBerry bleeding, operators negotiating handset lineups can point to Windows Phone's momentum when pressing Apple and Samsung on terms.
- Nokia, as Windows Phone's flagship hardware backer, captures most of the upside if the share shift continues, while remaining OEMs face a narrowing window to join before the ecosystem consolidates around one dominant vendor.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the smartphone OS market settles into a duopoly-plus-one structure: iOS and Android untouchable at the top, Windows Phone absorbing the legacy-platform remainder, and no viable path back for Symbian or BlackBerry's old base.
- Sustained third-ecosystem growth would force app developers to allocate resources across three platforms again, reversing the two-platform efficiency that has defined mobile development since the duopoly formed.
The trend: Smartphone operating systems are consolidating into a two-horse race with a single challenger, as Windows Phone grows by inheriting users from fading legacy platforms rather than taking share from iOS or Android.