Windows Phone 7 starting to reverse Microsoft's mobile slide?
Microsoft's share of the U.S. smart-phone market is still in decline, but the rate at which it is happening may be slowing, according to a new report from comScore. — In the first three months of 2011 …
Context & Ripple Effects
This is a reversal of tone from two months earlier: in March, comScore data showed Windows Phone 7 not reversing Microsoft's mobile slide at all, and Q4 2010 numbers were worse still — legacy Windows Mobile outsold the new platform outright. The through-line since launch has been an ecosystem bet: IDC reported in December 2010 that the Windows Phone 7 marketplace was ramping faster than Android, and Microsoft followed in late April with a porting API aimed squarely at pulling iPhone developers over.
The new comScore read is deliberately narrow — the U.S. decline continues, but the rate of decline appears to be slowing, with Windows Phone 7 a possible contributing factor. The same data cycle had Android emerging as the clear U.S. leader per syndicated pickup at ITworld, so Microsoft is stabilizing into a market consolidating around someone else.
First-order effects
- Microsoft's U.S. smartphone share keeps shrinking in Q1 2011, but at a decelerating rate per comScore — the first datapoint suggesting Windows Phone 7 might be slowing the bleed rather than accelerating it.
- Developers are the immediate target of the stabilization push: the April 29 porting API lowers the cost of bringing existing iPhone apps to Windows Phones, complementing the Messenger Connect APIs announced days earlier.
Second-order effects
- With Android established as the clear U.S. platform leader in the same comScore data, Windows Phone 7's growth path runs through taking share from legacy platforms rather than head-on competition with Android or iOS.
- A visibly slowing decline gives carriers and handset makers a reason to keep shelf space for Windows Phone devices instead of writing the platform off after one weak quarter.
Third-order effects
- If the deceleration holds, smartphone platform economics consolidate toward a three-horse structure where Microsoft competes on developer tooling and app-supply ramp speed rather than installed base — the bet its December marketplace-ramp framing and April porting tools were built around.
- Sustained platform competition raises the stakes on measurement itself: quarterly comScore share reads become the de facto verdict on whether a third ecosystem is viable, shaping carrier and developer commitment before sales alone could.
The trend: The U.S. smartphone market is consolidating around Android while Microsoft attempts to hold a third-ecosystem position by converting developer supply — apps, porting tools, APIs — into stabilized device share.