IDC Raises Tablet Forecast For 2012 And Onward: 122.3M By Year-End, 172.4M By 2013; Android Gains, eReaders Lose
Analysts at IDC have today upped their tablet forecast for 2012 and onward, now predicting 122.3 million units for 2012, up from the firm's previous forecast of 117.1 million units.
Context & Ripple Effects
The tablet forecast cycle has been whipsawing for two years: GigaOM's early-2011 boom call of 180 million tablets by 2014 was followed within months by IDC itself reporting shipments running below those lofty expectations. The revision today — 122.3 million units for 2012, up from 117.1 million, and 172.4 million for 2013 — marks the point where the analysts swing back to the bullish side of their own range.
What changed underneath is the platform mix. Bloomberg had already flagged Android tablets gaining on the iPad back in Q4 2010, and Flurry argued in January that Amazon lit the Android world on fire with its low-priced Kindle Fire. IDC's confirmation that Android is gaining while eReaders lose suggests cheap Android slates are now absorbing both first-time buyers and would-be eReader customers.
First-order effects
- Device makers and their component suppliers get a firmer demand signal heading into 2013 planning: IDC is telling them the 2012 market will be roughly 5 million units larger than it projected just months ago.
- eReader vendors face direct cannibalization — IDC's confirmed finding that eReaders are losing out means dedicated single-purpose readers are being displaced by general-purpose tablets at the same price points.
Second-order effects
- Amazon's cheap Android strategy gets validated by the numbers, pressuring Apple on price-tier coverage and pushing other Android OEMs toward the sub-$300 band where the volume growth sits.
- PC makers lose another slice of the holiday and 2013 budget: every incremental tablet unit IDC adds is plausibly a deferred netbook or entry-laptop sale, tightening the squeeze on Windows-centric OEMs.
Third-order effects
- If the pattern holds, the 'device category' boundaries collapse — eReaders fold into tablets first, then tablets and laptops converge into one screen-market contest where Android's volume advantage compounds against Apple's margin advantage.
- Analyst forecasts themselves harden into the industry's scoreboard: each IDC or rival revision moves supplier orders, investor positioning, and platform strategy, making forecast cadence a structural feature of the hardware business.
The trend: The tablet market is consolidating around Android-driven volume growth at accessible price points, with dedicated eReaders as the first casualty and the traditional PC the next contested territory.