RIM's BlackBerrys Losing Shelf Space, Mindshare Among Carriers
With Apple's next generation iPhone in the offing and new Windows Phone 8 and Android handsets headed to market in the weeks ahead, Research In Motion's forthcoming BlackBerry 10 devices are no longer top of mind …
Context & Ripple Effects
RIM's pitch to the market this year has been that BlackBerry 10 is coming and carriers are behind it — as recently as mid-August the company was insisting carriers love BlackBerry 10. Two weeks later, AllThingsD reports the opposite dynamic on the ground: with an expected next-generation iPhone, Windows Phone 8 handsets and new Android devices all landing within weeks, BlackBerry 10 is no longer top of mind at the carriers who control shelf space.
The slide has been building for over a year. BlackBerry 7 sales sputtered after a strong start in late 2011, the company lost its top spot to Apple even in corporate Canada by March 2012, and by July RIM was bleeding developers — the ecosystem problem that makes carriers hesitant to promote a platform whose apps gap is widening. Talk of a change at the top surfaced as far back as May 2011.
First-order effects
- Carriers allocating fall launch slots and marketing dollars will favor the imminent iPhone, Windows Phone 8 and Android handsets, leaving BlackBerry 10 devices fighting for display space and promotional placement at launch.
- RIM's August claim of carrier enthusiasm for BlackBerry 10 is directly undercut, weakening the company's ability to reassure developers and enterprise buyers during the wait for new hardware.
Second-order effects
- Developers weighing whether to build for BlackBerry 10 see carrier indifference as confirmation the installed base won't materialize quickly, compounding the attrition already underway since July.
- Windows Phone 8 handset makers gain a rare opening: shelf space RIM cedes is most likely absorbed by Microsoft's relaunch and Android's fall lineup rather than held for a fourth ecosystem.
Third-order effects
- If carriers consolidate around three ecosystems for the holiday season, the smartphone market structurally moves toward a winner-take-most model where a fourth platform needs carrier commitment it can no longer assume.
- A platform locked out of retail distribution while its developer base shrinks faces a self-reinforcing decline loop — the pattern that historically forces incumbents toward licensing, sale, or retreat to niche segments.
The trend: Carrier shelf space is consolidating around Apple, Google and Microsoft ecosystems, squeezing any fourth platform that arrives late with an unproven app store.