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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Netflix has 26 million streaming customers worldwide, prepared to do battle with HBO

Calling itself the “world's leading Internet TV network,” Netflix has announced $870 million in revenue for its fiscal Q1 2012.  The company also added almost 3 million subscribers to its streaming service …

The Verge Ross Miller

Context & Ripple Effects

Netflix has spent two years compounding subscriber momentum: it added 7.7 million members in 2010 to cross 20 million, and its members streamed 2 billion hours in Q4 2011 alone (2 billion hours in a single quarter). By April 2011 it had already grown larger than Comcast on a subscriber-count basis bigger than Comcast. Today's fiscal Q1 report extends that arc — nearly 3 million new streaming customers bring the total to 26 million worldwide on $870 million in revenue.

The notable shift is rhetorical as much as numerical: Netflix now brands itself the world's leading Internet TV network and names HBO as its adversary, moving the company from DVD-by-mail incumbent to premium-programming contender. The quarter drew wide pickup across eight-plus outlets including CNET, TechCrunch, CNNMoney and AllThingsD, though AllThingsD framed investor sentiment as balky despite an in-line result.

First-order effects

  • HBO now faces a streaming rival claiming 26 million paying members — a subscriber base comparable in scale to its own — explicitly positioning original/premium programming as the battleground rather than library licensing.
  • Netflix must convert $870M quarterly revenue into content spending fast enough to justify the HBO comparison, since its catalog today leans on licensed TV and film rather than exclusives.

Second-order effects

  • Cable and satellite distributors face renewed pressure as their largest single traffic source courts their most valuable premium channel directly — and CNET's angle on the story shows the data-cap fight with Comcast over Xfinity already surfacing as the flashpoint where that tension lands.
  • Rival streamers and pay-TV operators are pushed toward bidding up exclusive content rights, raising the acquisition cost floor for everyone competing against Netflix and HBO.

Third-order effects

  • If subscriber scale plus exclusive content becomes the winning formula, the industry restructures around two or three global subscription platforms with original-production budgets, eroding the à-la-carte cable channel model that premium networks like HBO pioneered.
  • The ISP-versus-streamer bandwidth dispute (caps, interconnection fees) hardens into standing regulatory and commercial terrain as streaming share of broadband consumption keeps climbing.

The trend: Streaming subscription services are scaling from licensed-library aggregators into premium-originals platforms that compete head-on with pay-TV's flagship networks, with broadband economics becoming the contested layer beneath.