The Mounting Minuses at Google+
Playing Catchup to Facebook, Google's Social Network Is a Virtual Ghost Town by Comparison — To hear Google Inc. Chief Executive Larry Page tell it, Google+ has become a robust competitor in the social networking space, with 90 million users registering since its June launch.
Context & Ripple Effects
The Wall Street Journal piece lands almost exactly at the midpoint of Google+'s public trial. In July 2011, early verdicts were favorable — The New York Times argued Google+ had improved on Facebook's formula (Google+ Improves on Facebook) and tracking pieces compared feature sets head-to-head (how Google Plus stacked up against Facebook). By November 2011, traffic data had already flipped the narrative toward fading user interest.
This story sharpens that turn into a direct credibility challenge: it pits Larry Page's confirmed 90-million-registration claim against the paper's finding of weak engagement relative to Facebook. Its unusually wide pickup — CNET, Business Insider, and commentary from Danny Sullivan, Jeff Jarvis and Mathew Ingram among others — shows how much attention the registered-versus-active gap drew just weeks before Facebook's IPO, with the Journal also noting an estimated $2.45 billion California tax windfall from that offering.
First-order effects
- Larry Page and Google face immediate pressure to defend the 90-million figure by disclosing active-usage metrics rather than cumulative registrations, since the Journal frames the network as a virtual ghost town beside Facebook.
- Brands and advertisers deciding where to place social spend get a prominent data point against Google+, right as Facebook's IPO concentrates investor scrutiny on measurable engagement.
Second-order effects
- Competing measurement firms and analysts gain leverage: whoever publishes credible Google+ activity data shapes the narrative, pushing Google to either open its numbers or cede the engagement argument publicly.
Third-order effects
- If registration counts stop functioning as a credibility currency, the industry standard shifts toward engagement and active-user disclosure — a structural change in how large platforms are evaluated by press, advertisers, and eventually investors.
The trend: Social networking competition is moving from a race for registered accounts to a contest over demonstrated engagement, with Google+'s 90M-signup claim as the flashpoint.