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REPORT: How Google Plus Stacks Up Against Facebook

Ever since Google Plus launched last month, the blogosphere has been making bold declarations about how the search giant's social media product means the beginning of the end for Facebook.  —  Well now, we've got some hard numbers …

All Facebook Jackie Cohen

Context & Ripple Effects

Two weeks after Google launched Google Plus, the story has moved from feature comparisons to scoreboard-keeping: a New York Times piece arguing Google+ improves on Facebook and CNET's report on Google wielding data openness against Facebook set up the product case, and now All Facebook counters the narrative with comparative numbers of its own.

The framing matters as much as the figures — the 'beginning of the end for Facebook' line circulating in the blogosphere is speculation, not a measured fact, so this report is an early attempt to replace launch-week hyperbole with data on how each network is actually performing.

First-order effects

  • Advertisers, analysts, and publishers tracking the social space get their first quantitative baseline for judging whether Google Plus's launch momentum translates into durable engagement against Facebook's installed base.

Second-order effects

  • Facebook is pushed onto the defensive in public perception — it must respond to measured comparisons rather than just feature critiques, while Google gains or loses credibility depending on whether the numbers hold up under scrutiny.

Third-order effects

  • If metric-driven scorecards become the norm, the contest between the two networks will be settled by sustained engagement and data portability rather than launch buzz — raising the bar for any challenger entering social networking.

The trend: The second great social-networking platform war is being contested through engagement metrics and data openness rather than feature lists alone.