The curious case of slowing US growth for Android
The latest data from comScore MobiLens is showing an uncharacteristic slowing in smartphone growth. In the survey period ending November, the number of smartphone users in the US was 91.4 million. This is equivalent to 39.1% penetration …
Context & Ripple Effects
Asymco's July switching-rate model projected US smartphone penetration hitting 50% by August 2012, and through the summer the comScore data cooperated — by August Android alone had reached 40 percent of US smartphone subscribers. The November MobiLens read breaks that rhythm: 91.4 million users at 39.1% penetration, with growth described as uncharacteristically slow.
The puzzle is that the slowdown is geographically narrow. Gartner put Android above 50% of global smartphone sales in Q3 2011, and Kantar ComTech showed it rising from nothing to dominate the UK market within 18 months — so the US deceleration sits against a platform still compounding elsewhere.
First-order effects
- Android's US share gains stall even as the platform posts 3.7 million device activations on December 24–25 alone, meaning holiday hardware demand is not converting into the subscriber-share trajectory comScore had been recording all year.
- US carriers and OEMs built 2011 volume plans around Android's steep US curve; a flattening 39.1%-penetration base shrinks the pool of first-time smartphone buyers they were counting on.
Second-order effects
- Microsoft's free-phone offer, timed against Juniper's finding that Android malware rose 472% since July 2011, attacks Android precisely when its US momentum pauses — turning security perception into a switching lever aimed at fence-sitting buyers.
- With fewer net-new smartphone users to win, Apple, RIM and Microsoft shift from competing for conversions to competing for each other's installed bases, raising the stakes on upgrade offers and trade-in economics.
Third-order effects
- If penetration converges on the ~50% level asymco's switching model anticipated, the US market structurally flips from acquisition-driven to replacement-driven, and platform share becomes a function of retention and switching costs rather than first-smartphone choice.
- A maturing US market alongside a still-growing Android footprint abroad would push vendor strategy toward region-specific playbooks — defending share in saturated markets while harvesting growth internationally.
The trend: US smartphone adoption is crossing from rapid first-buyer conversion toward saturation-driven replacement cycles, where platform competition is decided by switching rather than new entrants.