Switching rates for US smartphone users suggest 50% penetration by August 2012
The latest comScore MobiLens is out and it allows an update to the picture of the US phone using population. Through the three month period ending May 2011, smartphones were in use by 76.8 million or about one in three US phone users.
Context & Ripple Effects
Asymco's read of comScore's February 2011 U.S. mobile subscriber report set up the question this update answers: how fast the American feature-phone base is converting. Through the three months ending May 2011, comScore MobiLens counts 76.8 million US smartphone users — about one in three phone subscribers.
What makes the datapoint matter is the trajectory asymco draws from it: extrapolating current switching rates puts the 50% installed-base mark roughly thirteen months out, around August 2012. Crossing that line flips the US phone population to majority-smartphone, which changes what 'market share' even measures — from share of phones sold to share of a converged base.
First-order effects
- Carriers and handset vendors draw their next wave of volume almost entirely from the remaining two-thirds feature-phone base, so each month's switching rate now directly sets their upgrade volumes and data-plan attach.
- Platform share in the US moves primarily through switchers rather than first-time buyers, sharpening the contest between operating systems for every feature-phone owner's replacement decision.
Second-order effects
- As penetration nears half the base, developers and advertisers concentrate spending on whichever platforms hold majority reach, raising the viability bar for smaller mobile ecosystems.
- Converting the last third of subscribers forces harder competition per upgrade — heavier subsidies, richer contract terms — pushing margin pressure up the handset supply chain.
Third-order effects
- If the projection holds, the US installed base flips to majority-smartphone during 2012, turning penetration from a growth story into the baseline metric beneath platform-share and churn measurements.
- Measurement firms such as comScore reorganize headline reporting around smartphone and OS segments, formalizing an industry where nearly all incremental value sits above the hardware layer.
The trend: The US phone market is working through its crossover phase — from minority to majority smartphone base — with the pace set by feature-phone switching rather than new-line activations.