US iPhone, iPad demand more than 40% stronger than expected
An Alphawise survey of American purchasing intentions indicates that US iPhone and iPad demand are stronger than expected; sales will continue to outperform expectations into 2012 and should enable Apple to beat estimates next year.
Context & Ripple Effects
The Alphawise finding lands on a familiar beat: analysts have been lowballing Apple's device demand since the tablet arrived, when early calls pegged the iPad at just 1.2 million units for its first June quarter — a number the product quickly made look conservative. The December 2011 survey extends that pattern to both flagship iOS lines at once.
What makes this reading useful is its source: purchasing-intention data rather than channel checks, pointing to US consumers still planning to buy iPhone and iPad units well past the holiday quarter and into 2012. If intentions convert, the consensus estimates built on softer assumptions are the ones that break.
First-order effects
- Apple enters calendar 2012 with US demand running more than 40% ahead of what sell-side models assumed, making a beat against next year's estimates the base case rather than the upside case.
- Analysts who anchored 2012 forecasts on pre-survey assumptions face immediate model revisions, with Alphawise's intention data becoming a fresh input in the estimate-setting cycle.
Second-order effects
- Stronger-than-modeled US pull on iPhones and iPads tightens component and assembly allocation across Apple's supply chain, forcing suppliers to choose between Apple volume and other customers' orders.
- Rival handset and tablet makers competing for the same US holiday-and-beyond buyer face a competitor whose demand floor keeps proving higher than the market priced, squeezing their own unit forecasts.
Third-order effects
- If purchasing-intention surveys keep outrunning conventional channel-based estimates, the structural story is persistent underestimation of Apple demand by Wall Street — a recurring gap that shapes how every subsequent quarter's guidance is read.
- Sustained dual-line strength would entrench the iOS ecosystem's installed-base flywheel, where each beat compounds app-developer and accessory investment around the platform.
The trend: Consumer-demand signals for Apple's iOS devices keep arriving ahead of Wall Street's models, a gap that has defined Apple coverage since the iPad's 2010 launch.