Prediction: 1.2 Million iPads Sold in June Quarter and a New iPhone Form Factor
This is, perhaps, stating the obvious, but 2010 is likely to be a big year for Apple. With the iPad set to arrive April 3 and the company presumably headed into an iPhone upgrade cycle, Apple is poised to move a lot of product in the coming months.
Context & Ripple Effects
Two weeks ago, Tech Trader Daily reported an analyst estimate that Apple would build 5 million iPads in the first half of 2010; on March 24, Digital Daily adds the demand side of that equation, citing projections of 1.2 million units sold in the June quarter following the confirmed April 3 launch.
The same writeup folds in a rumored new iPhone form factor as Apple enters its 2010 upgrade cycle, framing the year as a dual-product refresh. Read together with the 5-million-unit build plan, the modest near-term sell-through figure sets up an inventory question for the back half of the year — the number analysts will be watching once the launch-quarter dust settles.
First-order effects
- The 1.2M-unit June-quarter projection becomes a public benchmark that Apple's first full quarter of iPad availability will be measured against once the device ships April 3.
- Set against the earlier plan to build 5 million iPads in the first half, a 1.2M near-term sell-through implies channel inventory building through mid-year rather than clearing at launch.
Second-order effects
- The anticipated new iPhone form factor gives prospective buyers a concrete reason to hold off on current-model purchases ahead of the refresh, tempering demand for the phones shipping today's lineup.
Third-order effects
- Pre-launch analyst forecasts are hardening into the de facto scoreboard for Apple product cycles — expectations get set by projected unit counts before a device ships, so every launch is judged against a number nobody has observed yet.
The trend: Apple's product launches are increasingly framed by sell-through forecasts issued before devices ship, turning analyst unit predictions into part of the launch event itself.