Verizon's Cure for CrackBerry Addiction: Android
Another handful of worrisome data points for Research in Motion, which appears to be slipping down carriers' priority lists as the BlackBerry struggles for purchase in an increasingly sophisticated market.
Context & Ripple Effects
Research in Motion's problem with carriers has been building all year. A March 2010 survey found that 40% of BlackBerry users were willing to trade in for an iPhone, and by early December Motorola's chief had fueled unconfirmed talk of a Q1 Verizon iPhone launch — meaning RIM's largest US partner was about to have two hotter platforms to merchandise.
This story adds a third data point: rather than waiting on Apple, Verizon is actively promoting Android handsets as the alternative to BlackBerry, and Digital Daily reports RIM slipping down carriers' priority lists heading into the holidays. For a company whose distribution model depends entirely on carrier enthusiasm, losing the pitch at retail matters more than any single handset review.
First-order effects
- Verizon's sales push now steers upgrade-hungry holiday shoppers toward Android devices instead of BlackBerry, directly costing RIM activations at its most important US carrier during the quarter that matters most.
- RIM's response options narrow to price cuts and carrier incentives, since it controls neither the app ecosystem nor, increasingly, the retail narrative at Verizon.
Second-order effects
- Every Android unit Verizon sells strengthens Google's position on the network — notable given the two companies' jointly proposed net neutrality framework just weeks earlier — giving the carrier-Google alignment a commercial as well as policy dimension.
- If the rumored Q1 Verizon iPhone materializes, RIM faces both flagship alternatives on the same shelf, forcing competitors' pricing responses across the entire midrange smartphone tier where BlackBerry still sells volume.
Third-order effects
- Carriers are emerging as the de facto gatekeepers of mobile OS success — whichever platform they merchandise wins distribution, a structural shift that punishes vendors dependent on carrier goodwill alone.
- If carrier indifference compounds, RIM's enterprise-rooted, carrier-exclusive model becomes a case study in how quickly an incumbent OS can lose the distribution channel even before losing users outright.
The trend: Carrier merchandising muscle is becoming the decisive force in mobile platform competition, and RIM's BlackBerry is the first incumbent to find itself demoted from default recommendation to afterthought on the sales floor.