40% of Blackberry users willing to trade in for an iPhone
BlackBerry users may be ready to move on to other smartphone platforms, suggesting that RIM isn't keeping up with consumer demand in its efforts to combat growing encroachment from the likes of iPhone and Android.
Context & Ripple Effects
The picture looked very different a year earlier: a February 2009 survey found new BlackBerry users running 20% above expectations, suggesting RIM was converting first-time smartphone buyers faster than anyone forecast. This new finding flips the concern from acquisition to retention — 40% of existing BlackBerry users telling pollsters they would trade in for an iPhone.
The timing matters because RIM's base is being squeezed from two directions at once. Android emerged from CES 2010 as the software platform story of the year, with January surveys already showing it transforming the smartphone market, while Apple holds the premium end. RIM's visible responses so far are an unconfirmed Slider device speculated to be a Storm3 successor, an official OS 5.0 update list for existing models, and a doubling-down on wireless security and mobile device management apps aimed at keeping the corporate IT base locked in.
First-order effects
- RIM's upgrade cycle becomes a churn risk: four in ten current users are signaling willingness to leave at their next trade-in, so every OS 5.0 rollout and new hardware launch now has to defend the installed base rather than just add to it.
- Apple gains a large pool of self-identified prospective switchers it does not have to acquire through carrier shelf space or advertising — the demand is declaring itself.
Second-order effects
- Defecting BlackBerry users have two landing spots, not one: Android's post-CES momentum means RIM's losses split between iOS and Android, forcing both Apple and handset makers to compete harder for switchers on price and app breadth.
- RIM's counter-move leans on its enterprise franchise — the security and mobile-device-management applications released in February 2010 are an attempt to make corporate procurement the anchor that keeps consumers on BlackBerry even as consumer preference drifts.
Third-order effects
- If stated switching intent converts into actual upgrades over successive hardware cycles, smartphone competition shifts from selling devices to owning the ecosystem — app stores, content, and IT management tools — where RIM enters weaker than either rival.
- Persistent leakage from a once-dominant enterprise incumbent points toward a consumer market consolidating around two platforms, with carriers and corporate buyers left arbitrating between them.
The trend: Smartphone competition is moving from winning new buyers to retaining installed users, making switching-intent surveys a leading indicator of platform share shifts.