Why no iPhone SDK?
Scoble says Steve Jobs isn't an idiot, he knows that developers make a big difference in the success of a platform. He concludes that an SDK, turning the iPhone into an open platform, will come at some point after the initial release, maybe as early as January 2008.
Context & Ripple Effects
The iPhone ships in under two weeks as a closed device — no SDK has been released — and the question hanging over Apple's developer relations right now is whether that was deliberate. At Monday's WWDC keynote in San Francisco, Jobs pointed developers at Safari 3's speed as the answer, and reactions were divided between the inspired and the disappointed.
Robert Scoble's argument here is that Jobs understands developer ecosystems make or break platforms, so the closed launch is staging rather than strategy-by-omission — an SDK arriving after the initial release, possibly as early as January 2008. It's a bet about sequencing: lock the hardware experience down first, open the platform second.
First-order effects
- Developers targeting the iPhone have exactly one sanctioned path at launch — web apps through Safari — while native tooling stays off-limits.
- Rival smartphone platforms get their clearest recruiting pitch yet: openness versus a closed device whose developer story is a promise, not a product.
Second-order effects
- If an SDK does arrive on Scoble's timeline, every term of it — approval process, restrictions, revenue split — becomes Apple's unilateral call, set after developers have already invested in the platform.
- Competing handset makers can be expected to counter-position around native development freedom, turning Apple's staged opening into a wedge for developer mindshare.
Third-order effects
- The episode crystallizes a governance question that outlasts this launch cycle: who decides when and how a platform opens, and what leverage does the vendor hold by controlling the timing — the platform-nimbleness trade-off Apple is visibly weighing.
- If Scoble's read holds, 'ship closed, open later' becomes a repeatable playbook for consumer hardware launches, with developer patience as the resource being spent.
The trend: Smartphone competition is shifting from hardware specs to developer ecosystems, with the platform owner's control over when and how to open the API emerging as the decisive strategic lever.