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Chronicles

The story behind the story

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Apple iPhones Get Call

Taiwanese contract manufacturer called on to build Apple cell phones, report says.  —  Apple Computer CEO Steve Jobs may actually be able to pull off a splashy iPhone announcement at Macworld by January.  —  The Mac maker has placed an order for 12 million iPhones …

Red Herring

Context & Ripple Effects

This lands one day after Forbes reported that Taiwan's Hon Hai had won Apple orders covering mobile handsets and notebook PCs Hon Hai's reported Apple handset and notebook wins. Today's report attaches a number and a date to that story: an alleged order for 12 million iPhones and a possible splashy Steve Jobs unveiling at Macworld by January.

Both claims remain rumors rather than confirmed facts, so the significance here is directional: if even roughly accurate, Apple would be committing to handset volumes on the scale of a mainstream phone maker's flagship launch — through the same Taiwanese contract-manufacturing channel that already builds its Macs and iPods.

First-order effects

  • If the 12-million-unit order holds up, Hon Hai moves from being a rumored Apple supplier to the launch manufacturer for Apple's entry into the handset market, with production capacity tied directly to a product that does not yet officially exist.
  • Steve Jobs faces a staging decision at Macworld in January: announcing an unannounced product whose supply chain is already leaking through Taiwan press reports.

Second-order effects

  • Established handset vendors — Motorola chief among them given its close Apple relationship around the ROKR-era music phones — would be forced to treat Apple as a direct competitor rather than a partner if the device ships.
  • Taiwanese component and assembly suppliers along Hon Hai's chain gain a high-volume anchor order, tightening competition among EMS firms bidding for Apple's next-generation hardware programs.

Third-order effects

  • The episode points to contract manufacturers becoming strategic gatekeepers of consumer-electronics launches: scale bets like a 12-million-unit first order mean a product's viability is effectively decided on the factory floor before any keynote confirms it.
  • If Apple enters phones through a single-source Taiwanese partner, industry structure shifts toward brand owners controlling design while concentrating volume risk in one assembler — a template other consumer electronics brands would likely copy.

The trend: Consumer electronics launches are migrating toward brand-owner design plus concentrated Taiwanese contract-manufacturing scale, where supply-chain orders leak product roadmaps months before official announcements.