An analysis of 1.6M Polymarket accounts since November 2022: 0.1% of users get 67% of the profits, with the highest-frequency traders seeing the most success
A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi—often pros using data-driven algorithmic trading—take home most of the winnings
Wall Street Journal
Related Coverage
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Discussion
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@senblumenthal
Richard Blumenthal
on x
Prediction markets are rigged against consumers—insider trading, misleading bets & worse returns than Vegas slot machines. A shocking 67% of profits go to only 0.1% accounts. https://www.wsj.com/...
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@senblumenthal
Richard Blumenthal
on x
My Prediction Markets Security & Integrity Act would regulate this scheme for what it is—gambling—& put much needed rules to prevent insider trading, addiction & misleading or dangerous bets.
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Neil Mehta
Neil Mehta
on linkedin
Prediction markets have taken the world by storm, branding themselves as everyman's platforms to make a quick buck. — But in reality, the vast majority of traders are losing money. …
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Alan Jagolinzer
Alan Jagolinzer
on linkedin
Why Almost Everyone Loses—Except a Few Sharks—on Prediction Markets — A WSJ analysis shows a small number of accounts on Polymarket and Kalshi …
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@chrisshank.com
@chrisshank.com
on bluesky
“betting markets will ‘democratize finance’ and find truth in any difference of opinion through ‘collective wisdom’” [embedded post]
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@paleofuture
Matt Novak
on bluesky
“On Polymarket, the Journal found, 67% of profits go to just 0.1% of accounts. That means less than 2,000 accounts netted a total of nearly half a billion dollars.”
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Nizan Geslevich Packin
Nizan Geslevich Packin
on linkedin
New data on prediction markets out today (The Wall Street Journal), reinforces what we have been researching. …