Study: long-shot Polymarket bets on military action, defined as $2,500+ wagers at odds of 35% or less, have a ~52% average win rate, vs. 25% for political bets
Financial Times
Related Coverage
- More than half of all Polymarket “long shot” bets on military action pay off Ars Technica
- Polymarket Polices Insider Trading as Lucrative Military Bets Raise Suspicions The Daily Upside · Jamie Wilde
- Bombshell Report Suggests Polymarket Insiders Are Cashing In On War Bets Far More Than Anyone Realized Benzinga · Daragh Thomas
- Polymarket partners with Chainalysis to deploy a detection model to “surface patterns consistent with insider knowledge in prediction markets” and other tools Bloomberg
Discussion
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Geoffrey Gertz
Geoffrey Gertz
on linkedin
This is the analysis I'd been hoping someone would do! — There's been a lot of reporting on potential insider trading cases on Kalshi and Polymarket …
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Nicola Borri
Nicola Borri
on linkedin
A striking piece in the Financial Times on prediction markets. — The standard narrative is that these platforms harness the “wisdom of the crowd.” …
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@drewharwell.com
Drew Harwell
on bluesky
Is it a good thing for the world that people can now secretly monetize their access to classified information on the timing and success of military strikes — www.ft.com/content/989d... [image]
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@frederikobermaier.com
Frederik Obermaier
on bluesky
More than half of “long-shot” bets on military action made on Polymarket are successful, according to a new report @acdatacollective.bsky.social that suggests prediction markets could pose a bigger threat than previously recognised to the security of sensitive information.